Karadeniz kıyılarında gözlenen yağış ekstremleri ve öngörülen etkileri

Climate change has increased extreme precipitation events worldwide, leading to significant economic losses in Black Sea coastal countries (Bulgaria, Georgia, Romania, Russia, Türkiye, and Ukraine). This study investigates the relationship between the return periods of such events (2000–2024) and the resulting economic losses, while also projecting future impacts. Strong and significant relationships were found for Türkiye, Bulgaria, and Romania, while analyses for Russia and Ukraine were limited due to data gaps. For future projections, extreme precipitation trends for 2030–2060 were evaluated using the MPI-ESM1-2-LR climate model under the SSP5-8.5 scenario (CMIP6). Even small increases in rainfall are shown to cause significant economic consequences. The findings provide a foundation for disaster management, infrastructure planning, and regional climate adaptation policies