Kuzey Kıbrıs yıllık yağışlarının zaman serisi modellemesi ve kuraklık frekans analizi

Cyprus which is the third biggest island in the Mediterranean Sea is located in the south of Turkey. The island has a semi-arid climate The rainfall is the main source of the island, therefore, the analysis of existing rainfall data across the island has vital importance for a better sustainable water resource management. In this study, annual rainfall data of 33 meteorological stations across North Cyprus were used. The main objectives of the study are modeling the annual observed rainfall of North Cyprus by using ARIMA models and finding the return period of the most critical historical drought events by using ARIMA models. As a result, low order ARIMA models were generally found suitable for North Cyprus annual rainfall data. Also, for average annual North Cyprus rainfall, the return period of the most severe drought event with severity of 406.3 mm, was found as 63 years. For the four sub-regions of North Cyprus namely, the West part of North Cyprus, North Coast and Mesaria Plain, Central Mesaria Plain, and West Coast and Karpas Peninsula, the return periods of the most severe droughts with the severity of 572.4 mm, 319.5 mm, 319.8 mm, and 555.1 mm, were obtained as 137 years, 26 years, 40 years, and 116 years, respectively. These results will be very beneficial for the sustainable water resource management of North Cyprus. Important precautions can be taken to minimize the devastating effects of climate change by the related government authorities.