Rarest precipitation events in Turkiye willsee the greatest relative increase inmagnitude under future climate change

Changes in precipitation regimes occur due to global climate change, and these changes may occur in the form of increases in extreme precipitation events and drought as a result of decreased precipitation. This study undertakes a critical examination of T¨urkiye's rarest precipitation events and their anticipated changes under future climate change scenarios, employing the Regional Climate Model (RegCM4.3.5) and focusing on RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. It evaluates precipitation in T¨urkiye for return periods of 1, 10, 100, 1000, and 10000 years during the periods 2026-2050, 2051-2075, and 2076-2100, based on MPI-ESM-MR scenario predictions under CMIP5, tailored for the region. Employing a range of distributions, including log-normal, GEV, and Gumbel, the log-normal distribution was found most accurate, particularly for the 2026-2050 RCP8.5 scenario. Under the RCP4.5 scenario, the Mediterranean region is expected to see a significant increase in extreme precipitation events with 100-year return periods, while Central Anatolia may experience a decrease. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, a substantial intensification of extreme precipitation events is projected for the Mediterranean and Aegean regions throughout the century. These findings highlight the urgent need for region-specific adaptation strategies in water management, flood defense, and sustainable urban planning, especially in the most affected Mediterranean and Aegean regions. This research not only offers important insights for future policy and research but also emphasizes the need for proactive measures in response to evolving climate patterns.