Analysis of abnormal returns of the stocks of publicly offered companies in 2024

This study examines whether there are any "abnormal returns" in the shares of companies that went public for the first time on Borsa Istanbul (BIST) in 2024. Within the scope of the research, the stock returns of companies newly listed on the exchange during the specified year were compared with the returns of the BIST All Shares Index, which reflects the overall market performance. The resulting "abnormal return" values obtained from this comparison were then analyzed. The analysis results indicate that the underpricing phenomenon frequently discussed in the literature also applies to the 2024 initial public offerings (IPOs) in Turkey. In particular, on the first trading day and during the first week, the returns of the companies showed statistically significant positive deviations relative to the market. These positive abnormal returns continued, on average, up to the 60th and 90th trading days, and the cumulative returns generally remained in positive territory. Additionally, the findings point to the impact of various factors on IPO performance. From a sectoral standpoint, technology companies exhibited higher abnormal returns in the short and medium term following their IPOs, clearly outperforming other sectors. In contrast, the real estate sector displayed lower average returns, with occasional negative abnormalities. Regarding firm size, smaller companies garnered strong positive returns on the first day and during the first week likely due to greater investor interest and underpricing whereas the impact in larger companies was more limited. When examining timing factors, it was observed that IPOs conducted in the first quarter of the year attracted more intense demand, driven by investors' appetite for risk, and thus distinguished themselves from other quarters in terms of average returns. v Overall, these findings not only shed light on the pricing dynamics of IPOs but also offer practical insights for company management, investors, and regulatory authorities. In particular, the presence of abnormal returns, the effects of underpricing, sectoral variations, and IPO timing appear to play critical roles both for companies planning to go public and for investors considering participation in new stock offerings.