The effect of climate change on the change in the quality of water resources in Ihlara Region of Aksaray province

Global warming observed in recent years has been associated with large-scale changes in the hydrological cycle, such as changes in precipitation regimes, densities and frequencies, reduced snow cover, and changes in soil moisture and runoff. As a result of these changes in the hydrological cycle, it not only affects freshwater resources in coastal areas, but can also cause salinization of groundwater. Globally, freshwater resources are the most important resources we need in all areas of life and lifes. Only 0.3% of the 35 million km3 of fresh water on Earth consists of freshwater resources suitable for ecosystem and human consumption. The most important effects of climate change are the disruption of the water cycle and the change of water quality. Increasing climate changes causing the quantity and quality of freshwater resources to decrease and pose a threat to future generations. Within the scope of the study, the consequences of climate change in Ihlara Province, in Turkey were examined by models with backdated meteorological precipitation and current data for the selected region. One of the climate scenarios used in this study, HadGEM2-ES, is designed for the specific purpose of simulating and understanding the century-scale evolution of climate, including ecosystems and hydrological processes, in a completely consistent way. The other model is the GFDL-ESM2M global circulation model. The MPI-ESM-MR model, on the other hand, is a comprehensive climate model consisting of many components that integrate the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, and terrestrial systems. In this work, drought analysis was carried out utilizing meteorological 17192-Aksaray station data (2010–2022) and the SPI index. Using these data, the 2023–2098 regional climate change and drought scenarios of the HadGEM2-ES, GFDL-ESM2M, and MPI-ESM-MR models were analyzed. It is anticipated that temperatures will rise and precipitation levels will fall in the Ihlara region of Aksaray when forward-looking estimates show that the region has experienced moderate to severe drought up to this point.