Copert4 modeliyle hesaplanan karayolları emisyonlarının duyarlılığının İstanbul hava kalitesine etkisinin WRF/CMAQ model sistemiyle belirlenmesi

Istanbul, the study area and the economic capital of Turkey, is the most populated city all around Europe with a population well over 14 million. The city has faced with environmental problems due to rapid urbanization and industrialization for a couple of decades. Air pollution is one of the most challenging problems for Istanbul where studies publicized that air pollution, particulate matter pollution in specific, has various serious effects on public health. Although air pollution is caused by numerous sources ranging from industrial to biogenic activities, emissions from motor vehicles have the most adverse effects on public health as they are released at the locations with certain levels where human activity is the highest. Traffic related emissions were calculated by using COPERT 4 (COmputer Programme to calculate Emissions from Road Transport) which is vehicle emission computation software and supported by European Environment Agency (EEA). Model input data were obtained from Turkish Ministry of Environment and Urbanization, and TUVTURK, then the data were processed by R that is a software environment for statistical computing and graphics. Besides fleet distribution process based on EURO levels, engine volumes, and fuel type was done first time for Istanbul, COPERT 4 was also run with this high resolution data. High-resolution emission inventory for other sectors, which is prepared by Dr. Ulaş Im, were employed. It can be summarized from the results of this analysis that road transport itself is solely responsible for 32 percent of CO emissions, as well as playing a main role in NMVOC emissions with the contribution of 43 percent to the total NMVOC emissions inventory, and NOx emissions with the contribution of 40 percent to total NOx emissions inventory. Furthermore, overall CO, NOx and PM2.5 contributions by road transport are found as 51%, 42%, and 11%, respectively. It is also realized that impact of road transport on inventory is higher than other sources. Vehicle emissions in inventory with this vitality increase the importance of determining the sensitivity and the uncertainty of calculations. To investigate the sensitivity of COPERT 4, three scenarios are determined based on temperature and speed parameters with numerous values that are strongly affecting the calculations. Then, base case emission values were compared with obtained emission values of these three scenarios. For the each scenario COPERT model was run and emissions of road transport was obtained. Then, calculated vehicle emissions used as input for air quality model. As a result of emissions for each scenario, a conclusion can be drawn that the major pollutant is NOx and minor pollutant is PM2.5 in general, where the emissions are higher in rural areas than urban areas and than the highways When a general analysis is done on scenarios regarding to pollutants, it can be realized that there is a decrease in emissions of all kinds of pollutants except CO as speed increases, and increase in emissions of all kinds of pollutants except CO as speed decreases. On the other hand, an obvious decrease in emissions of pollutants except NMVOC is realized in the case of temperature decrease. After evaluating the effect of change in model parameters on emission rates, air quality model was run to determine how would the effect of variation on emission rates embody in air quality. Model was first run for base case, then it is tried to determine the impact on air quality by running the model for each case separately. PM2.5 is analyzed since it has a significant effect on public health although it is not one of the pollutants that are caused by vehicle emissions. The day and time was examined when the gap is at maximum between the concentrations that are calculated for fundamental cases and the concentrations that are calculated within each model cell for all scenarios. It has been realized that there is 1.5 μg/m3 (~5%) decrease in PM2.5 concentration Istanbul-wide when results from CMAQ is analyzed within Scenario-I where the speed increased by 20%. 1.5 μg/m3 rate might be considered insignificant when it is compared with other average concentrations; however, it plays a key role on public health. In Scenario-II, it was realized that there is an average 2μg/m3 decrease in PM2.5 concentration depending on decrease in speed. This study can be advanced by obtaining higher resolution data that are employed for emission calculations of vehicles such as truck, bus, etc., by preparing more detailed emission inventory, and by employing the data suiting more accurate boundary conditions for air quality model.