The effect of credit composition on economic growth: Evidence from Turkiye

The literature explores the link connecting financial development and the real economy, emphasizing the singular roles of entrepreneur/enterprise and household credits. Many studies in literature, however, examine financial development as a whole and neglect to analyze the individual influences of its elements. A credit composition is a measure of how bank credits are divided between enterprises and households. We will gain insight into the channels by which the financial system affects the economy through this decomposition. This study looked into the short and long-term influences of credits extended to enterprises and households on economic growth in Turkey between 1986 and 2021. A thorough examination of this link in the context of Turkey is necessary. In the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, Turkey realized large inflows of foreign capital at low costs. The enrichment of Turkey in terms of foreign resources enabled the residents of Turkey to benefit from these resources through the credits given by the banks. The rapid credit growth in the Turkish economy in recent years and the increase in the ratio of credits to Gross Domestic Product have also increased the power of loans to affect various macroeconomic variables. It is perceptible from the literature that financial development and economic growth have a strong tie, but it is noteworthy that there are relatively few studies that examine the tie connecting the type of credit and growth. The first study on the influences of credit type on various macroeconomic variables was conducted by Beck, Büyükkarabacak, Rioja and Valev (2012). For the first time, they systematically examined the influence of household and enterprise credits on growth in one of the most comprehensive studies in this field. Researchers found that enterprise credits stimulate economic growth, while household credits do not, based on data from 45 developed and developing countries in the 1994-2005 period. This study was trailed by a limited number of studies that used panel data analysis. Time series analysis was employed in two studies by Majeed, Iftikhar, and Atiq (2019) as well as Škare, Sinkovic, and Rochon (2019). A study conducted by Majeed et al. (2019) in Pakistan using the ARDL model found that enterprise credits were positive and significant for Pakistan's economic growth, but household credits did not. In their analysis for Poland using the Johansen cointegration test, Škare et al. (2019) concluded that business and household loans have a significant influence on economic growth. There has been no study that examines the influence of credit type on economic growth using time series analysis for Turkey. The analysis investigated short and long-term links using an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model based on bound testing. The ARDL cointegration test was chosen because it is more advantageous than other cointegration tests in many respects. Based on the study's findings, the link under consideration appears to differ significantly depending on the type of credit involved. A positive influence of enterprise credits on economic growth has been determined, but household credits are not long-term contributors to economic growth. There is a two-way causality for enterprise credit and growth in the short and long term while no causality link was detected for household credit and growth. Enterprise credits positively affect economic growth, indicating that more appropriate investments are made when enterprise credits increase. Moreover, the total private bank credits in Turkey have not been found to have an influence on the growth of the economy. In light of this finding, it is imperative that we examine the influence of credit composition on economic growth.