Analyzing the factors affecting stock price with panel data analysis and prediction of sustainable profitability with logistic regression

Companies achieving sustainable profitability shows that the company is less affected by environmental events, is financially successful and is based on solid foundations. In this study, 82 companies operating in the manufacturing industry sub-sectors were classified according to the sustainable profitability criterion and 54 companies were included in the successful group by meeting this criterion. The impact of companies' financial ratios and stock market performance ratios on stock prices for the 2016-2022 period was examined with panel data analysis, and the impact of these ratios on sustainable profitability was examined with a logistic regression model. In this context, as a result of the panel data analysis, it was seen that the PD/DD value was common for 3 of the 4 sectors examined and had a more general effect on the stock price than other ratios. The predictive success of the model used in the correct classification of successful and other companies with the logistic regression model was tested for 7 years and it was observed that the predictive power of the data for recent years increased to 88.23%. It has been concluded that there is no parallel relationship between the factors affecting the stock price and the factors affecting sustainable profitability.