İhracat, ithalat ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki: Mali örneği

This study mains to investigate the relationship between export, import and economic growth. As determinant of GDP, the variable final consumption expenditure has been added in this study to analysis and interpret the result. This paper employed unit root test to check the stationarity between the variables. The diagnostic and stability test were used to verify the authenticity of the variable by using different test like serial correction, heteroskedascity, linearity and normality. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model has been used to confirm the long and short run relationship between the variables. The econometric software Eview12 was used to analyze data from 1972 to 2023. The finding result in unit root test indicated that, all the variables were stationary at I (0) by using ADF, PP, KPSS and NG-Perron test. The serial correction test showed a no evidence of serial correlation. The heteroskedascity test indicated that, the test has no heteroskesdacity problem. However, the normality test revealed a residual normality distributed by using Jarques-Bera model. Furthermore, the linearity test indicated a linear relationship between variables. In ARDL model from bound test procedure, the finding result indicated a long run relationship between export and final consumption expenditure on economic growth and import has negative impact on GDP. In short error correction model, it appeared that, import and final consumption expenditure influence positively economic growth. Empirically, both variables, exports and final consumption expenditure contribute significantly to raising the GDP level in this analysis. Given that economic policy is a key factor that might encourage investment, this suggest that raising GDP is essential for diversifying exports.