The impact of climate change on olive agriculture in Türkiye: determination of vulnerability and adaptation strategies

Türkiye is one of the first regions where olive (Olea europaea L.), was cultivated and has played a historical role in the spread and development of this product. Olive which has been cultivated in Türkiye for many years, holds great economic and cultural value and plays an important role in dietary habits. This study aims to reveal how climate change will affect olive cultivation areas and to identify potential adaptation strategies. For this purpose, bioclimatic variables have been utilized to simulate both current and future climate conditions. To determine the current distribution areas, bioclimatic variables from the reference periods 1960-1990 and 1970-2000 have been utilized. To identify potential future distribution areas, projections were developed using RCP (CCSM4) and SSP (MRI-ESM2-0 and MIROC6) emission scenarios. Projections were obtained using the MaxEnt modeling tool. The future predictions made under the RCP and SSP scenarios suggest that significant changes will occur in olive cultivation areas. According to the predictions, it is expected that areas classified as "barely suitable" and "suitable" for olive cultivation will expand in Turkey in the coming years, while "unsuitable" and "very highly suitable" areas will decrease. It is predicted that the Aegean and Mediterranean coastal regions may maintain their potential for olive cultivation; however, these areas are expected to become more vulnerable due to changing climate conditions. In contrast, olive cultivation areas in the Marmara Region are anticipated to be largely unaffected by climate change. In the future, it is anticipated that areas currently unsuitable for olive cultivation may become suitable, allowing olive farming to expand northward and to higher altitudes in the country. Although an increase in olive cultivation areas classified as "barely suitable" and "suitable" is anticipated in the future, there are uncertainties regarding the yield and quality that can be obtained from these areas. Adaptation strategies play an important role in preserving existing olive groves and establishing new plantation areas. In this context, factors such as irrigation and soil management, fertilization, protection against extreme weather events, pest and disease management, variety selection, planting, pruning, harvesting, technology use, and farmer education are critical adaptation strategies against climate change.