Markov zinciri yaklaşımı ile sanayi üretimi ve istihdamın döngüsel dinamikleri

Understanding the dynamics of business and growth cycles received considerable attention in the literature. In this study, we provide a methodology based on representing economic time series such as industrial production index growth, employment growth and capacity utilization rates as Markov chains and testing these series for time-dependence and homogeneity. Then we use a first passage time analysis to evaluate the expected passage times between below the trend and above the trend states of these Markov process. These times can be used to analyze the recession and recovery durations as well as the times from a trough to a peak and from a peak to a trough of growth cycles. We use this analysis to study the growth cycles of 24 countries which thus allows us to compare cyclical dynamics of these countries and relate the differences to institutional changes that were put in place. As a result, we present Markov chain-based tests as an easy-to-implement nonparametric methodology to study cyclical dynamics of economic time series.