A model on risk analysis methods in ship handling during port manoeuvres

Ports are the connection points between the sea and the land in the maritime industry, have an important role in world trade. Ports host many ships each day. The characteristics of the ships that can manoeuvre within the port limits are determined depending on the technical structure of the ports and the environmental conditions of the ports' location. The characteristics of the ships such as their type, length, width, draft, and tonnage are important factors that determine the port's limitations. If these restrictions are not followed, it is inevitable for marine accidents to happen within the port area, which can lead to severe consequences such as deaths and injuries, material damage, environmental pollution, and even disasters. Risk analysis studies are carried out in order to prevent possible accidents at the ports and to determine the perils that may occur. When the studies in this field are examined, it is determined that different risk analysis methods are utilized. By using these analysis methods, the dangers sourced from ship manoeuvring that may occur within the port limits are tried to be analyzed. While the coastal structures such as port or pier, dock, dolphin located in the port built in Turkey are at the project stage, a modeling report on ship manoeuvres is requested by the Turkish Ministry of Transport and Infrastructure. In this report, it is requested to evaluate the ship manoeuvres with a risk analysis method by using ship bridge simulator systems. With this modeling report prepared, it is determined which ships are suitable for manoeuvring the coastal structure planned to build under various environmental conditions. The modeling report is prepared only by ministry-authorized institutions. When these reports prepared by the institutions are examined, it is seen that each institution apply different risk analysis methods. The purpose of this study is to create a risk analysis model to be used in the prepared modeling reports and to determine with this modeling report which ships are suitable for manoeuvring in a port and under which environmental conditions ship can manoeuvre. Fine-Kinney and Fuzzy Fine-Kinney methods were chosen as the main risk analysis methodology for this study, which have not been used in the related literature. In the study, a full mission ship's bridge simulator was used in created scenarios by taking various environmental conditions into account and coming alongside manoeuvres were carried out by masters with a pre-determined ship on a pier at a port in Istanbul. After the end of each manoeuvre, surveys were filled out and assessments were made by masters that are considered as experts in maritime domain. According to results obtained from the risk analysis methods applied in the study, it was determined which ships with which characteristics are suitable for manoeuvring and under which environmental conditions. In addition, both risk analysis methods applied were compared at the end of the study and it was seen that consistent results were obtained from both methods. It was determined that both analysis methods are applicable, but the Fuzzy Fine-Kinney method gives more precise results than the Fine-Kinney method. It is expected from both methods to contribute to future studies in this area. In addition, as a result of this study, a risk analysis model is created for institutions to benefit in their modeling reports. Keywords: Ship Manoeuvres, Risk Analysis, Fine-Kinney, Fuzzy Fine-Kinney