Drought analysis of Tunceli province using the standardized precipitation index

Drought is a complex natural disaster that significantly affects ecosystems, agricultural production, water resources, and human life. With the increasing impact of climate change, the frequency and severity of drought events have risen, making the monitoring, assessment, and management of drought increasingly critical. This thesis analyzes the state of meteorological drought in the province of Tunceli using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) method. In this study, monthly precipitation data from 2012 to 2023 were obtained from 10 automatic meteorological observation stations located across Tunceli, operated by the Turkish State Meteorological Service. These data were processed with the DrinC v1.7 software to compute SPI values. Based on these values, monthly, seasonal, and annual drought analyses were conducted. Furthermore, the spatial distribution of drought severity was visualized using ArcGIS software. The analysis results indicated that the average monthly precipitation during the study period was 52.09 mm and that the region exhibited distinct drought tendencies. During the period under review, an average of 36.50% of the months were classified as dry, while 33.60% were recorded as wet. The proportional dominance of dry periods is a concrete indicator that underscores the risks posed to the region's water resources and ecological balance. This study contributes to the understanding of drought dynamics in Tunceli and provides a scientific foundation for future drought risk mitigation strategies. Additionally, by testing the applicability of the SPI method at the regional scale, the research serves as a reference for areas with similar geographical and climatic characteristics.