Transition fuel for a sustainable future: The role of natural gas and its impact on households

The acceleration of the urbanization process has profound and difficult-to-reverse effects on the natural environment. Environmental degradation caused by human activities has reached a critical level, particularly within the framework of climate change, leading to devastating consequences for ecosystems. This study aims to comprehensively analyze the effects of the socio-demographic and economic characteristics of households and household heads on the probability of natural gas expenditure, as well as on conditional and unconditional expenditure levels. In this context, an extensive dataset covering 11,296 households, obtained from the Household Budget Survey conducted by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TURKSTAT) between January 1 and December 31, 2022, was utilized. During the analysis process, a residual-dependent bivariate Double-Hurdle Censored Model was applied for an in-depth evaluation. The findings reveal that the socio-economic profiles of household heads and households play a decisive role in natural gas consumption tendencies and conditional and unconditional expenditure levels. Specifically, factors such as the marital status of the household head (being married or widowed), the type of residence (semi-detached house or other housing types), the proximity of the residence to banks and healthcare centers, the total weekly household expenditure, the age of the building, the number of rooms, and the size of the residence significantly increase both the probability of natural gas expenditure and the amount spent. These results indicate that households with these profiles tend to have higher natural gas consumption, thereby increasing carbon emissions and posing a significant risk to environmental sustainability. This study has developed applicable and effective recommendations for policymakers in light of the identified variables. To reduce the environmental pressure of urbanization and ensure more sustainable energy management, the study emphasizes the necessity of promoting the transition to green energy, implementing regulations that enhance energy efficiency, and adopting environmentally friendly policies. The findings of this study serve as a guide for shaping sustainable urbanization and energy policies, contributing significantly to efforts to build an environmentally conscious future.