Turkish defense industry exports: A study on Middle East – North African countries

The defense industry is critical in Turkey due to Turkey's geopolitical position. Because of this, Turkey has tried to develop its technological infrastructure and management skills and produce the needed defense industry products safely and continuously within the domestic possibilities. Therefore, developments in the defense industry reduce foreign dependency and increase the export rates of defense industry products. In this study, Turkey's defense industry exports to the Middle East and North African countries between 2011-2020 were examined within the scope of the gravity model by creating panel data using annual data. In the established models, Turkey's defense industry exports are the dependent variable; the countries' GDP, the distance of the capitals of the countries to Ankara, populations of the Middle East and North African countries, and the Covid-19 effective years were used as independent variables. In order to predict the model to be used in panel data analysis, tests used in the literature are applied, and the assumption test analyses for the model determined as a result of these tests were carried out through the STATA-17 program. According to the diagnostic test analysis results, the models were analyzed using the panel data fixed effects Driscoll-Kraay standard errors estimator, and estimations were made. As a result of the analysis, it was concluded that the GDP of the Middle East and North African countries affected Turkey's defense industry exports positively, and the distance variable affected it negatively. In this context, it can be claimed that the economic development of these countries and the reduction of transportation costs may be effective in the development of Turkey's exports of defense industry products, and exports to the Middle East and North African countries may contribute to the development of Turkey's defense industry. Keywords: Defense Industry, Export, Gravity Model, Middle East - North African Countries, Panel Data Analysis.