Middle income trap problem in terms of sustainable growth resources in Turkiye

It is said that the first thoughts regarding the economic growth should be sustainable have occured with the effect of production and population increase happened after the industrial revolution. It is known that there are real income differences between the countries raised their economic growth rapidly and the countries stayed behind the industrial revolution anda re obliged to a stable growth. Point of origin of the 'middle income trap' concept is slowdowns occuring in growth. In this respect middle income trap problem is a growth problem. Middle income trap should be solved with a sustainable and long-term growth performance so as to get over this problem and hinder the trap risk. The aim of this study is to test econometrically whether Türkiye which is defined as an 'upper-middle income' country in accordance with the World Bank income classification is basically in trap or not based on the United States and the World per capita income. The second purpose of the study is to determine the growth resources which make economic growth more steady and sustainable of the selected middle-income countries included Türkiye which are in the middle income trap or at the risk of trap to reach the level of high-income countries. From this point of view firstly, structural and non-structural unit root tests have been applied to determine whether the economy of Türkiye is in a trap or not. As a result of the analysis, the results of the Robertson ve Ye (2013) approach, which is based on United States showed that Türkiye is not in the middle income trap. In the based on the average per capita income of the world countries, it has been determined that Türkiye is in the middle income trap. In accordance with the second aim of the study, panel data analysis has been carried out by which two different models for 37 countries in total to be selected from 12 countries that are middle-income included Türkiye and 25 countries that are high-income in the period of 2008-2020. Homogeneity test, cross-section dependency test, unit root test, F and Hausman tests, tests of basic assumptions, autocorrelation and varying variance test were applied to these panel data sets separately. As a results of the tests applied, the presence of cross-section dependence, varying variance and autocorrelation were determined in both panel data sets. Fort his reason, model predictions were made using resistant panel data estimators in the study. In the models established for middle and hig-income countries, explanatory variables that make growth sustainable based on the Cobb Douglas production function are used. The results obtained from the econometric analysis outputs of the thesis study showed that the positive effect of gross domestic savings, patent applications and the number of individuals using the internet on real GDP is higher in high-income countries than in middle-income countries.