The impact of anthropogenic factors on Turkey's climate change: 2030 CO2 emission and global temperature projections

As the fight against global warming has become a prominent issue on the international political agenda, data from Turkey indicate a recent increase in CO2 emissions and the factors triggering these emissions. For Turkey's policies and strategies to be effective, it is essential to understand the factors that increase warming and the rate of increase. Therefore, this thesis aims to project Turkey's CO2 emissions and its impact on global temperature by 2030, using time series and multiple linear regression (MLR) analysis to create an ideal model. This model utilizes variables such as population, gross domestic product (GDP), CO2 intensity, electricity production, fossil fuel consumption, renewable energy consumption, total greenhouse gas emissions, and forest area distribution. The values of these variables are forecasted up to 2030, and their impact on CO2 emissions and global temperature is analyzed through regression models. According to the findings of the analysis up to 2030, all variables show an increase. These increases are projected to lead to a 50.92% rise in Turkey's CO2 emissions and a 19.93% increase in its impact on global temperature by 2030. When Turkey's strategic plan and goals are examined, it is evident that there is no clear program, and the focus is primarily on ambitious targets related to energy intensity, GDP growth, and renewable energies. Findings indicate that it is challenging for Turkey to meet its commitments under the Paris Agreement as per its Strategic Plan and Business as Usual (BAU) scenario. Turkey's impact on global temperatures also poses a risk to achieving the temperature reduction targets set under the Paris Climate Agreement. Therefore, hopes for an early resolution to CO2 emissions and their impact on global warming appear bleak. This thesis aims to contribute to Turkey's climate change strategies and policies.