The change in arctic sea ice and the impact of global energy demand on LNG ship traffic

The world is experiencing a rapid increase in energy demand driven by population growth and economic expansion. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) has emerged as a critical component for global energy transportation to meet this growing demand. With its abundant natural gas reserves, Russia plays a pivotal role in LNG transportation and supply. Significant investments have been made in LNG infrastructure, including pipelines and export terminals, to cater to the expanding international demand. Furthermore, the Arctic region holds immense potential as a strategic location for LNG activities. The melting of sea ice due to global warming has opened up new shipping routes like the Northern Sea Route (NSR), making LNG transportation in the Arctic more viable. The dissertation conducted a rigorous analysis using the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model and the Granger Causality Test to determine the relationship between LNG ship traffic in the NSR and Arctic sea ice. The results confirmed a significant correlation between the two variables. Additionally, a forecast was conducted using a five-year dataset (2018-2022) of LNG vessels departing from Russia's Sabetta port, indicating an estimated 27.03% average increase in LNG vessel arrivals at the Sabetta port by 2025. This research provides valuable insights into the escalating energy demand, the role of Russia in LNG transportation, and the potential of the Arctic region as a significant LNG hub.