Disaster risk analysis of Bitlis and its vicinity

In this study, it was aimed at analysing the disaster diversity of Bitlis province and its surrounding where natural disasters are frequently lived through. In this scope, temporal and spatial variations of natural disasters such as landslide, avalanche, rock fall, flood, groundwater raising, and heavy precipitation were analysed for Bitlis province and its districts. Risk analyses were also performed by means of the data sets of natural disasters occurred in the past. In the risk analysis study, Fine–Kinney method that use the probability, the intensity and the frequency of the natural disaster was used. Besides, temporal and spatial variations of seismic risk and seismicity of Bitlis province and its close vicinity were also addressed. Gutenberg–Richter magnitude–frequency relationship and Poisson probability model were applied to determine seismicity parameters. Those parameters were calculated through a MATLAB based algorithm developed in the scope of this study, and the seismic stress beneath the study area was mapped. Additionally, occurrence hazard probabilities and the return periods of earthquakes having predefined values in predefined time intervals were calculated and mapped for the study area.