The relationship between demographic structure and energy consumption: An empirical analysis for developed and developing countries

The demographic factors of developed and developing societies after the industrial revolution have both diversified and differed qualitatively over the years. In particular, the most basic factors such as gross domestic product per capita, life expectancy at birth, education, unemployment and export figures have become more prominent in developed societies. Factors such as birth rates, mortality rates, life expectancy at birth, and early fertility rate have shown relative differences in developing societies. In this study, fixed effect panel quantile regression analysis is used to reveal the extent to which energy use is affected by demographic factors. Fixed effect panel quantile regression helps in model building in case of extreme values and non-normal distributions. In the fixed effect panel quantile regression model, on the other hand, it helps us to construct a model even in case of problems arising from extreme values and distribution. The different quantile intervals used in the fixed effect panel quantile regression model help us to measure the level of effect of the independent variables on the dependent variable when different distributions are used. This study examined the relationship between the variables believed to influence energy usage and the demographic factors of both developed economies represented by the G7 group of countries and developing countries represented by the CIVETS countries for the years 1990-2021 using fixed-effects panel quantile regression analysis at different quantile levels. The study examines the demographic factors affecting the energy consumption of G7 and CIVETS countries separately with their causes and consequences, both within the two country groups and in terms of their differences and similarities with the literature. The study examines the issues of demographic factors and energy consumption, which have never been studied in CIVETS countries to date. Since there is no direct study on age dependency and energy consumption in the literature for both G7 and CIVETS countries, the current study is intended to fill the gap in the literature. For other independent variables such as population, GDP per capita, mortality rate, school enrollment, it will contribute to the very limited literature with original results. Unlike the analyses used in the literature, the fixed-effect panel quantile regression used in this study analyzed each variable in different quantiles with high precision. The results show that all independent variables have a bidirectional causality relationship with energy consumption in both country groups. The result of the analysis also confirms this information. The first section of the study focuses on energy resources and consumption, the second section on demographic factors, the third section on demographic factors and energy consumption literature, the final section on the analysis of demographic factors affecting energy use and the last part on conclusion and evaluation. Keywords: Demographic factors, Energy consumption, G7 Countries, CIVETS Countries, Fixed effect panel quantile regression