Modeling and forecasting the fossil fuel-related carbon dioxide emissions by multiple regresion analysis: The case of BBRICS and MINT countries

The world is facing significant changes day by day due to the economic characteristics and geopolitical positions of the countries. Due to their large population, strong and effective management, natural resources, being a rising actor in their regions and their desire to take part in global markets, BRICS and MINT countries, which are shown as the fastest developing / rising economies of the world, are a result of these changes. In this thesis, a statistical analysis of the socio-economic status, energy outlook and fossil fuel-related carbon dioxide emissions of the BRICS and MINT countries is carried out. In addition, fossil fuel-related carbon dioxide emissions of the BRICS and MINT countries are modeled by multiple regression analysis depending on some socio-economic indicators of the related countries. The developed/proposed models are statistically validated by various tests such as the coefficient of determination, F-and t tests and actual versus predicted data sets. Moreover, the most significant variables that statistically affect the fossil fuelrelated carbon dioxide emissions of the BRICS and MINT countries are determined. Furthermore, the future fossil fuel-related carbon dioxide emissions of the BRICS and MINT countries are forecasted using the proposed models. Statistical analysis results provide that BRICS and MINT countries will come to a position that will guide the world economy in the near future due to their significant superiorities. The modeling results reveal that the developed models have a strong practical applicability potential. Also; forecasting results clearly demonstrate that significant increases are expected in the future total fossil fuel-related CO2 emissions of the BRICS and MINT countries.