Risk analysis of oil spills from ships application to the İstanbul strait g anchorage area

Maritime transport, especially in cargo transportation, emerges as the most important method. Maritime transportation is a type of transportation that is open to accidents and dangers due to the many different variables it contains. In this study, it is aimed to carry out an effective risk analysis of oil pollution from ships and to determine the preventive steps against pollution. In this context, ship accidents resulting in pollution are examined, and risk factors leading to pollution are evaluated to create an accident analysis guide. The analyses were conducted using the Tree Augmented Naive Bayes (TAN) method. The risk impact factors identified through TAN analysis were utilized in scenario creation within the GNOME software. A simulation was conducted using the GNOME software specifically for the Anchorage Area G of the Southern Entrance of the Istanbul Strait. The results of the study indicate that pollution continues as a result of maritime accidents. Therefore, understanding the accidents that lead to pollution is of significant importance. One of the most important outcomes of this study is that the simulation showed that the oil spill began to reach the shore in a short period of approximately 6 hours. This result shows that understanding the movement of oil is an important step for direct intervention in pollution.