The evaluation of afforestation in the high mountain ecosystem of the Gümüşhane-Kelkit region using sustainable forestry principles and climate change scenarios

High mountain ecosystems are special formations that need to be protected with their unique characteristics. High mountain forest ecosystems located in subalpine, montane and submontane zones are also included in these formations. It is important to protect high mountain forest zones in order to prevent the negative effects of important natural events such as avalanches, landslides, erosion, floods and inundations on agricultural and residential areas located at lower altitudes. These forests also have great importance in terms of sustainable management of freshwater resources. Within the scope of this research prepared as a doctoral thesis, the development performance and adaptation status of high mountain zone afforestation studies established with Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) within the borders of Gümüşhane and Bayburt provinces were examined and at the same time, the ecosystem changes that may occur in this zone in 2060 and 2100 were analyzed by applying climate change scenarios. According to the findings obtained from the research, the growth performance of Scots pine afforestations established in Bayburt, Kelkit and Şiran regions in 2017 and 2019 was found to be at a satisfactory level considering the extreme ecological conditions they are in. Again, it was determined that the average survival percentage values determined in the same afforestation areas in 2019 and 2020 were at the level of 78% and 65%. Again, according to the results of the climate change scenarios applied within the scope of the study, according to the SSPs 245 process, it is expected that the areas with semiarid characteristics in the research area will increase and transform to 284 ha semiarid areas and 7401 ha arid areas in 2060, and according to the same scenario, semiarid areas will increase to 1818 ha and arid areas will increase to 8742 ha in 2100. According to the SSPs 585 scenario, it is predicted that semiarid areas will increase to 880 ha and arid areas to 9370 ha in 2060, and semiarid areas to 8202 ha and arid areas to 11280 ha in 2100 according to the same scenario. In this context, vegetation changes caused by global warming effects in the region should be closely monitored, natural genetic resources should be protected, and genetic testing programs should be implemented to correctly determine the species and origins to be used in afforestation studies.