Investigation of the effects of climate change on hydrological characteristics and hydroelectric power generation: The case study of Altınkaya Dam Basin

Understanding the effects of climate change on dam basins is of great importance for water resources management due to their important role in providing essential functions such as water storage, irrigation, and energy generation. In this study, the potential effects of climate change on atmospheric parameters such as precipitation and temperature as well as dam inflows and hydroelectric power generation in Altınkaya Dam Basin, which has a significant potential for hydroelectric power generation in Türkiye, were investigated. These potential effects were investigated using ERA5 reanalysis data, six different general circulation models (GCMs) selected from the CMIP6 current archive and two different shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). Statistical downscaling models were used to downscale the selected GCMs from global to regional scale. Four different Multiple Model Ensembles (MMEs) were developed using different methods. The prediction of dam inflows and energy generation values based on specified parameters and climate change impact is interpreted using different machine learning models and hybrid algorithms. According to the findings of the study, under the optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, temperature increases could reach 3.11 and 5.64 °C, respectively, precipitation could decrease by up to 19 and 43%, respectively, and monthly average dam inflow and energy production data would change at different rates on a.