İnşaat projelerinde gecikme analizi için HTEA-tabanlı bir yöntem

Delay is prevalent in construction projects. Projects can hardly be completed on estimated targets due to emergent risk factors. Decision-makers need a delay analysis method to estimate construction duration accurately, considering the occurrence of several risk events. Due to the non-existence of historical databases about previous projects and the one-off nature of construction projects; the expertise of project managers is a valuable source of knowledge for delay analysis. In this study, the objective is to develop a delay analysis method that depends on the utilization of subjective judgment to estimate the main causes of delay and assess their impacts on project duration using failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA). Twenty – nine (29) different delay risk factors were determined through the literature survey, and they were classified into ten (10) distinctive levels. The risk priority number of schedule delay factors was quantified by the FMEA method and the ranking of the factors was demonstrated considering their importance on schedule delay. Three alternative methods were proposed to estimate corresponding durations of delay risk factors and to cross-check the effects of the proposed methodology. Then, the proposed methodology was applied to a demonstrative case study by using Primavera P6 Software. The estimated duration of schedule delay was calculated after the specified inputs were inserted into the software. In the light of the demonstrative case study results, the critical delay risk factors were discussed. There were three different results from three different alternative methods in methodology, and it was observed that results were approximate to each other. Although the proposed methodology was developed based on subjective judgment, the outputs were found to be conceivably satisfactory for the aim of the thesis. Keywords: Construction Projects, Delay Analysis, Delay Risks, Failure Mode and Effect Analysis, FMEA, Risk Factors