A model for the forecasting of the development of urban function and their spatial distribution-the vector autoregressive model: In the case of Trabzon

Currently, the urban regional planning models which are dynamic in terms of both multiple interacting components and through time increasingly become interesting among the all urban/regional planning models. The main aims of this study are first to examine the applicability of an Econometric model, Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model, which has a dynamic structure, to urban planning field and second analysing the interaction between exogenous macro factors (such as regional and provincial sectorial investments, agricultural production value, the valume of exports and imports, bank creadits given in the region and province, etc.) and endogenous urban factors (such as population and sectoral employments) to determine the exogenous factors that are effective on the growth of the main planning inputs-population and sectoral employment. Also, it is aimed to forecast the population and employment basing on the most effective interacting macro factors, and to test the reaction of population and employment when a shock (unexpected) change accure in these factors. In the first section, the resons of preference of the study subject and the aim of the study are stated. Fallowing these, the main types of planning approaches and planning techniques are given in an evahitionary order within the international frame work. Then, the hierarchical system of planning (at national, regional, local level), its development through time and the planning approaches in Turkey are evaluated briefly. In the second section, the statistics of Vector Autoregressive (VAR)model is explained, and some information is given about the study area in general, the data collection and performance of endogenous and exogenous variables through time. The third section covers the application of VAR model to study area. The interacting tables related to endogenous variables and the forecasts of these variables based on the most effective exogenous variables are given. Also, the endogenous variables reaction the shock changes in the most effective exogenous variables are analysed. In the fourth section the results of above analysis are criticaly evaluated in general context and in relation to different range (urban, provincial,regional). The conclusions about the usability and practicality of VAR model in the urban planning in Turkey and the findings of the case study in general are given in the fifth section, and the proposals are stated in the last section. Key words: Urban models, Vector Autoregressive Model, Forecasts, Shocks. vn