Predicting habitat suitability of Amorpha fruticosa L. under changing climatic conditions using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model

Climate change is among the most pressing global environmental challenges, exerting significant pressure on biodiversity and ecosystem stability. This study aimed to assess the potential habitat suitability of Amorpha fruticosa, an invasive plant species with known ecological impacts, across Türkiye under current and future climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5). The species distribution was modeled using MaxEnt, and projections were developed for four future time intervals: 2021–2040, 2041–2060, 2061–2080, and 2081–2100. The model yielded high predictive performance (AUC = 0.97), and the most influential bioclimatic variables were identified as Bio6 (minimum temperature of the coldest month), Bio15 (precipitation seasonality), and Bio1 (annual mean temperature). Under current conditions, highly suitable habitats are concentrated in western and northwestern Türkiye. However, future projections indicate a substantial reduction in these areas. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, "highly suitable" habitats are expected to decline by up to 54%, while "unsuitable" habitats could expand to cover 87% of the country. Stability analysis shows that while 61% of habitats remain unchanged under SSP1-2.6. This figure dropped to 56% under SSP5-8.5, with habitat contraction becoming more dominant. Habitat centroid analysis reveals a consistent shift toward the south and southwest, with greater distances observed under the high-emission scenario. These findings suggest that climate change not only alters habitat quality but also drives spatial redistributions of species. The study concludes that the future distribution potential of A. fruticosa in Türkiye will be significantly shaped by climate-driven environmental changes, potentially increasing its invasion risk in specific regions. Accordingly, adaptive management strategies, climate-informed monitoring programs, and conservation planning based on future habitat projections are strongly recommended.