Three essays on the macroeconomics of rare events

Rare events are extreme events with a high level of risk that may threaten the stability of societies, whether natural, human, or caused by their interaction. The need for a data-based analysis of the macroeconomic effects of rare events, such as natural disasters, wars, coups, and pandemics, which are in the memory of almost every society, is the motivation for this thesis. Accordingly, the main purpose of the thesis is to draw attention to the macroeconomics of rare events, the importance of which is gradually increasing, and to contribute empirically to the macroeconomic effects of different types of rare events, depending on their source. In the thesis, empirical analyzes were carried out for all three types of rare events. The thesis started with a chapter that will introduce the macroeconomics of rare events, and then, in the first empirical essay of the thesis, the effect of natural disasters on economic growth was examined in a sample of 164 countries and findings were obtained regarding the negative effects of natural disasters on economic growth. In the second empirical essay of the thesis, the effect of military coups and coup attempts on economic performance was examined in a sample of 85 countries that were exposed to at least one coup attempt, and it was found that the impact of coups on economic performance was negative. In addition, findings have been obtained that the effects of the coups in the post-cold war period on economic performance are greater than in the cold war period. In the last empirical essay of the thesis, the effect of pandemics, which are rare events that occur from the interaction of natural and human processes, on economic activity was examined for the COVID-19 pandemic in the OECD sample, and it was found that the effects of pandemics on economic activity were negative. At the end of the thesis, in which three separate empirical analyzes were carried out, suggestions were made for researchers and policymakers.