Forecasting of the long term allowable cut in forest management planning using linear programming

FORECASTING OF THE LONG-TERM ALLOWABLE CUT IN FOREST MANAGEMENT PLANNING USING LINEAR PROGRAMMING SUMMARY The purpose of this study is to approximate the actual forest state to an optimal forest state within different conversion period lenghts» to ensure the sustainability of allowable cut over planning horizon > to maximize the total present net value calculated with financial analysis > and to provide the performance indicators of the forest management plan for the first plan period. A linear programming model that includes area control, volume control and allowable cut control was developed on used to test 436 different strategies for planning of Gazipaşa Forest Management Unit. These strategies aimed to maximize total allowable cut and present net value > but 212 models provided a feasible solution. The objective function of models developed with respect to total present net value was based on financial data that obtained from operational costs and income of the management unit. The solution that maximized the total present net value of the forest management unit was chosen as the best of solu tion. The value of the objective function is 63352171000 TL and the amount of the total volume is 9054041 m3. When the objective function was the total volume» the value of the total volume would increase a 5.4 percent and the amount of the total present net value would decrease an 19.9 percent. For the first plan period, when the objective function was the total present net value, the regeneration, afforest ation area and allowable cut was 7029.5, 3007.7 heetar and 1000782 m3, respectively, whereas, when the objective function was the total volume, the regeneration, afforest ation area and allowable cut was 3546.0, 6914.4 heetar and 492596 m3, respectively. Key Words : Forest Planning, Long-term Planning, Linear Programming, Optimization VIII