Orta ve uzun dönemli elektrik piyasa modellemesi için yeni bir metodoloji

In the electricity market, there is a considerable degree of uncertainty in electricity demand, supply, and price due to the uncertainty in parameters such as economic growth, weather conditions, fuel prices, and timing of new investments, etc. These factors in return affect the predictability of the electricity market. This thesis aims to increase the predictability and observability of the electricity market by means of a suitable and validated electricity market modeling methodology designed for medium and long-term horizon. The proposed methodology consists of electricity demand, supply, and price modeling parts for the medium-term horizon and reveals the possible range of electricity prices considering the uncertainties in demand and supply. This methodology is upgraded with two new features for the utilization in the long-term horizon in the changing market environment. The first one of these features is a generator maintenance scheduling model which enables more realistic electricity supply modeling. The second one is a realistic electricity generation expansion planning model which determines the future electricity generation fleet. Based on these modifications and the previously established electricity price model used for the medium-term horizon, this methodology can reveal how electricity market conditions can evolve for a selected year in the long-term horizon. Thanks to its dynamic structure and ability to yield results on hourly basis, the central planner can benefit from this modeling methodology in policy making.