Peace Index of MENA Countries Since 1960

The Global Peace Index (GPI) is a study to measure peace levels of different countries at a national and international level and rank 162 nations according to their "absence of violence" since 2007. It examines which countries are involved in ongoing national and international conflict while evaluating peace. 23 qualitative and quantitative indicators with auxiliary 32 economic and societal indicators are used. It does not just draw attention to violence and conflict, but also help us, mainly political leaders, to understand those and invest in a more peaceful world. Nevertheless, GPI is inadequate at some points. Firstly, GPI does not base on a proper theoretical model for peace so that the work is done without having a solid theoretical modelling. Second, is the absence of objective selection and weighting of the indicators being assessed an ad hoc manner. Lastly, the series in use are not reproducible, in order that the GPI production is limited to a certain period of time. This study aims to bring out the significant determinants that feed the peace as well as conflicts in societies both internally and externally. Data series collected independently from the IEP are used in their original forms without transforming them into categorical forms. By this way, we developed objective weighted series, which makes it possible to reproduce GPI back in time until 1960. Non-parametric technique of Partial Least Squares Path Modelling is employed for producing GPI values. With the production of alternative series, this thesis explores the changes in peace level of MENA countries in the long run. Keywords: Peace, Global Peace Index, Clustering, Principal Component Analysis, Partial Least Squares – Path Modelling.