Preparing fire risk map using gis-based multi criteria decision making techniques

This study was carried out in the Hatay Regional Directorate of Forestry. It is aimed to prepare the fire risk map of the study area according to the Multi Criteria Decision Making techniques based on Geographic Information Systems. Fires data that occurred between 2012 and 2021 was obtained from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). To create a fire risk map, four main parameters (stand structure, topography, environment, and climate) and 16 sub-parameters (tree species, developing stage, crown closure, slope, aspect, elevation, topographic wetness index, distance to settlement, distance to agricultural area, distance to road, distance to river, population density, temperature, precipitation, wind speed, and solar radiation) were used. Fire risk maps were prepared according to the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), Frequency Ratio Method (FRM), and Statistical Index (SI). It has been determined that approximately 61% of the fires occurred in Calabrian pine stands and maquis areas. The accuracy of the developed fire risk models was tested by Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis, and the Area Under The Curve (AUC) values for the AHP and FRM models were found to be 0,821 and 0,844, respectively. Among the models, it was determined that FRM was more successful than AHP. According to these results, it was revealed that the fire risk maps produced reliable results according to both models. With this study, it has been demonstrated that GIS-based multi-criteria decision making techniques can be used as an effective tool in the preparation of fire risk maps.