Scalability of projected patterns of extreme weather events over Europe using regional climate model projections

Climate change leads to significant increases in the frequency and severity of extreme weather events. Combating climate change and developing adaptation strategies is of great importance for a sustainable future. The effects of climate change need to be understood and addressed, and climate models are used for this end. However, due to differences in climate models and systematic errors in model calculations, different techniques such as "pattern scaling" are also used. The study used a pattern scaling approach, extracted from different global climate models, to examine how changes in temperature extremes and total precipitation in the EURO-CORDEX region respond to increases in global temperatures using certain extreme weather indices. According to the results, the yearly minimum value of daily minimum temperature (TNn) increases more than the yearly maximum value of daily maximum temperature (TXx) for Europe. The multi-model mean of the changes in scaled patterns of extreme temperatures emerges early, around 2020, even before it becomes robust. Additionally, the total annual precipitation amount (PRCPTOT) in the northern regions increases by up to 6-9% compared to the reference period, while decreases of up to 12-15% can be observed in North Africa. Finally, using the ERA5 dataset, the change in patterns of four extreme temperature indices was examined to determine whether end-of-century scaled patterns could be detected for the conditions that were observed. The observed patterns of change closely resemble the end-of-century scaled patterns identified by the GCM-RCM sample, indicating that end-century patterns are already emerging in some parts of the domain.