Prediction of potential distribution of selected tree species under SPP climate change scenarios in Kastamonu, Türkiye

This study undertakes a comprehensive analysis of current predictions and future projections of species distribution for key tree species in Kastamonu province, Türkiye, under SSP2 and SSP5 climate change scenarios using the MaxEnt model. By investigating the intricate dynamics of changing habitat suitability, the study underscores the profound implications for tree species composition within forest ecosystems. The findings reveal that both biotic and abiotic factors, with climate change as a pivotal driver, significantly influence the distribution of tree species. Notably, temperature-related predictors consistently play a critical role, emphasizing their significance in species distribution modeling. Future projections unveil a nuanced landscape, delineating winners and losers based on habitat suitability changes, thereby highlighting the complexity of climate change impacts on various species. Specifically, Pinus sylvestris, Pinus nigra, Fagus orientalis, and Abies nordmanniana subsp. equi-trojani are projected to face challenges whereas, Pinus brutia displays a short-term decrease but a long-term increase in suitability, suggesting potential adaptive responses. The study provides valuable insights that can significantly enhance conservation strategies, fostering adaptability and effectiveness in the face of ongoing climate change impacts. Key words: Habitat suitability; Maximum Enthropy; Climate Change; Shared Socioeconomic Pathways; Kastamonu