Seismic loss estimation methodology: A case study in Istanbul

Earthquakes have been considered as one of the most serious threats to human life in physical, social and financial manner. Throughout the years, earthquakes have resulted in millions of people death, injury, physical disability; having psychological disorder and billions of dollars economical loss. In order to reduce these negative effects, estimation of future earthquake occurrence and minimizing the potential risks have crucial importance. The main responsibility should be taken mainly by municipalities, the researchers and scientists dealing with earthquake and geophysics, urban and regional planners and insurance companies. After occurrence of last two destructive (Kocaeli - August, 17 1999 and D¨uzce - November, 12 1999) earthquakes that have affected Marmara Region seriously, urban renewal and rehabilitation of buildings has gained remarkable importance in the cities having seismic activities. Especially in Istanbul, which is the most crowded and popular city among these, urban renewal ˙ methodology has widely taken place. In addition, the submarine faults underneath the Marmara Sea at very close proximity to Istanbul has not reactivated since 1766 ˙ and these are considered having huge potential to create significant seismic activities. These are the main motivations of this thesis study. This study aims to propose deterministic and probabilistic methods to estimate the seismic risk using the three of these submarine faults at closest proximity to Istanbul and based on this corresponding ˙ risk with different return periods, to determine vulnerability of a fictitious residential building in Kadik¨oy, Istanbul.