Technological detailed modeling and analysis of electrical energy use and co2 emissions in turkey within the framework of markal based bottom-up national energy model

In Turkey, as a fast developing country, demand for energy is growing each day. Asenergy?s strategic importance regarding sustainable economic growth, social and politicalstability gets greater; an energy modeling system that balances long and short term energysupply and demand, identifies possible bottlenecks, coordinates investments and financing,and foresees environmental impacts, a scenario based framework becomes inevitable. Forthe purpose of analyzing and better understanding the energy sector of Turkey and beingable to predict how the energy sector will evolve in the future; a ?bottom-up?, long-termenergy supply and demand balance modeling system which is the ?MARKAL? modelingsystem and the MARKAL-TURKEY model developed at Boğaziçi University aredeployed in this study. Especially, the electricity generation sector of the MARKAL?Turkey model is analyzed and expanded with the aim of minimizing total costs andestimating total amount of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Firstly, a reference scenariothat reflects the status of Turkey?s energy system under current conditions and expectedfuture trends is generated, and different ?What-if? scenarios are developed by, (i)restricting CO2 emissions at a certain percentage, (ii) applying tax per tonne of CO2, (iii)changing fuel prices, (iv) forcing carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologiesdeployment and, (v) utilizing nuclear power. Together with the reference scenario,different realizations of these considerations and their combinations have led to thegeneration of a total of 30 scenarios (as the reference scenario and alternative scenarios).Finally, the results of each scenario are presented considering the electricity sector costs,the CO2 emissions and fuel consumptions. After the analyses of these results, concludingremarks are given.