An analysis of the feasibility of transforming the Organization of Turkic States into a Turkic Union

The Organization of Turkic States (OTS) emerges as one of the most significant initiatives that brings together Turkic communities—whose historical, cultural, and linguistic ties span centuries—under a common institutional framework amidst the evolving conditions of today's international system. The Turkic world, extending across nearly 11 million square kilometers and encompassing a population exceeding 260 million, has witnessed various political, economic, and social transformations from the past to the present in a vast geography stretching from the Adriatic Sea to the Great Wall of China. Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the newly independent Turkic republics, from the 1990s onward, increasingly transferred their pursuit of mutual cooperation and integration to institutional platforms. As a result of this process, the Summits of Heads of State of Turkic Speaking Countries, which began in 1992, led to the establishment of the Turkic Council as a permanent and organized entity through the Nakhchivan Agreement in 2009, and subsequently, to the founding of the Organization of Turkic States in 2021.C Today, the OTS, with its member and observer states, covers a population of approximately 180 million and an area of about 5 million square kilometers, operating with a vision that prioritizes political, economic, and cultural cooperation. The organization stands out as a flexible yet increasingly institutionalized platform for integration, nourished by a shared identity and historical legacy, rather than as a fully-fledged political union. The common language, religion, and culture form the basis not only for the OTS's role as an international organization but also for its evolution into a "community of identity." At this point, in contrast to the European Union's model of "unity in diversity," the OTS embodies a model we can term "unity in similarity," wherein common language and historical elements play a dominant role in the integration process. The main objective of this study is to analyze the integration processes of the OTS within the framework of both classical and contemporary integration theories in the discipline of international relations, and to integrate the findings with strategic recommendations. In this context, institutional development, economic integration, defense and security cooperation, cultural and societal rapprochement, and identity formation constitute the main areas of examination. Furthermore, a comprehensive SWOT analysis evaluates the current strengths and weaknesses of the OTS, as well as the opportunities and threats it faces. Among the strengths are Turkey's advanced defense industry and technological development, the energy and natural resource wealth of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan, cultural-historical partnership, regional leadership, and diaspora capacity. Weaknesses include a lack of institutionalization, insufficient integration in transport infrastructure, low trade capacity, and political-economic incompatibilities. The study also addresses external factors affecting the integration process, such as the geopolitical opportunities presented by international projects like the Belt and Road Initiative, as well as external risks stemming from the pressures of actors such as China, Russia, and Iran, along with ethnic conflicts, border issues, and security threats. The thesis examines the multidimensional integration process of the OTS from the perspective of international relations theories. Approaches such as federalism, confederalism, institutionalism, interdependence, transactional theories, regionalism, intergovernmentalism, liberal integration, functionalism, neo-functionalism, and social constructivism are comparatively evaluated in relation to the OTS's trajectory. In addition, the study proposes an original model—termed "functional-constructivism"—that synthesizes functionalist and constructivist dynamics. This model describes a cyclical integration dynamic, where technical cooperation fosters societal rapprochement, and societal-cultural convergence, in turn, paves the way for new technical and political steps. Thus, the OTS's integration experience offers a flexible and sui generis theoretical perspective that transcends classical theories. The findings of the study demonstrate that OTS integration is not limited to technical and economic cooperation but is also strengthened by shared identity and cultural values. Over the past decade, the Turkic world has undergone a significant transformation from "historical romanticism" to pragmatic and rational integration. If current weaknesses are addressed and opportunities are effectively leveraged, it is argued that the OTS holds the potential to evolve into a Turkic Union in the long term. Strategic documents such as the "Vision 2040" show that this integration is progressing through both functional (transportation, energy, digitalization) and normative (common alphabet, diaspora, cultural cooperation) objectives. Moreover, the study finds that with regular inter-institutional contact and the emergence of common norms, the OTS has begun to develop an organizational culture and identity; that the strengthening of economic and human ties has reduced the likelihood of conflict; and that mutual trust and solidarity among Turkic communities have been consolidated. In conclusion, this study reveals that, in the case of the OTS, functional and identity-based integration proceed simultaneously and in a mutually reinforcing manner. It proposes an original "functional-constructivist" model that goes beyond classical integration theories. The OTS's potential to evolve into a Turkic Union in the future is assessed as being contingent upon institutional reforms, economic integration, cultural rapprochement, and the strengthening of international legitimacy. In light of the analyses presented, the study offers comprehensive recommendations for both the academic literature and policymakers, detailing the necessary steps for the OTS to become an effective global actor.