Forecast model with si̇multaneous process of Turkey's wheat industry

Wheat is the most important agricultural product supplying the needs of food and nutrition which they are basic needs of countries. It has importance that knowing dinamics of foreign trade and also formation of supply and demand of wheat because it has an important share in the World economy and Turkey economy. The aim of this study is that dimension of supply, demand, foreign trade and price of wheat product are modelled by using a simultenous system between 1961 and 2013. For his purpose generalized moments method that is the most suitable among those;models of apparently irrelevant regression, indirect least squares, two stage least squares,three stage least squares and generalized moments methodthat they are tested on the models is chosen to aside some of the economic problems by using simultaneous estimation method and the prediction of models are carried out.It is found as variables affectin gwheat production are that the amount of wheat production, producer price of wheat and corn with the amount of buying by TMO, variables affecting consumption are that wheat price and income per capita, variables affecting export are that wheat production, stock and exchange rate of dollar, variables affecting import are that rate of production meeting consumption and stocks, variables that affect price are that stock, fertilizer price and export.