Türkiye ekonomisi üzerine 3+1 makale

ABSTRACT3+1 ESSAYS ON THE TURKISH ECONOMYYücel, Mustafa ErayPh.D., Department of EconomicsSupervisor: Assoc. Prof. Dr. Hakan BerumentSeptember 2005This dissertation comprise of four essays. The first essay studies the relationshipbetween treasury auction maturity and auction interest rates. Using the Turkishauction data from 1988 to 2004, a reciprocal linkage between auction interest ratesand maturities is observed, especially for the 1995-2000 period. This suggests thatunder an adverse shock, treasury decreases the auction maturity in order not toincrease interest rates too much. A change in this reciprocal relationship is alsoreported for the post-2001 era. The second essay assesses the effect of USD-Europarity on a small open economy for an economy where its exports are predominantlydenominated in Euros and imports are denominated in USD. The empirical evidencesuggests that a positive innovation in USD-Euro parity appreciates the localcurrency, decreases inflation and increases output. The third essay studies theiiirelationship between on-budget and off-budget expenditures in Turkey and concludesthat information content of the budget deficit statistics is not empty; however, itmight be misleading in assessing fiscal stance for Turkey. The final essayinvestigates the connection between Turkish industrial production performance andthe success of a popular Turkish football team, namely Fenerbahce. The success ofFenerbahce is interpreted as a proxy for the workers' mood or morale. Performing atransfer function analysis on my monthly data set, I reveal a positive feedback fromFenerbahce's success, which proxies workers' mood/morale, to economicperformance. Evidence of the effects of games against domestic rivals on industrialperformance is not statistically significant.Keywords: Confidence crisis, Debt management, Debt maturity and Yield curve,USD-Euro Parity, Output, Inflation, and Real Exchange Rate, Consolidated Budget,Public Sector Borrowing Requirement, Fiscal Stance, Vector Auto Regression.Mood, Morale and Productivityiv