Analysis of factors affecting the CDS spread in Turkey's economy election period: 2002-2018 period

The CDS spread is considered as an important indicator in measuring the country risk and evaluating the risk perception of foreign investors towards the country. In the thesis; the cointegration relationship between CDS spread to macroeconomic and financial variables which are thought to affect CDS spread was examined for four general elections covering the period of November 2002-June 2018 in Turkey. Election periods are separated four semester. These are 3 November 2002 - 22 July 2007, 23 July 2007 - 12 June 2011, 13 June 2011 - 1 November 2015 and November 2, 2015 - June 24, 2018. cointegration relationship between the five-year CDS spread and real growth rate, inflation, unemployment, current account deficit / GDP, real effective exchange rate and ratio basis total capital was analyzed by ARDL Bound Test Approach. According to the results; the relationship between real growth rate and CDS spread was found to be significant in the first and third periods. There was a significant negative relationship in the first period, while there was a significant positive relationship in third period. The relationship between inflation and CDS spread was found to be significant for the second and third periods. It was concluded that there was a positive relationship in these periods. There was no significant result in the unemployment rates in any period. The co-integration relationship between current account deficit / GDP and CDS spread was found to be positive in the first period. The relationship between the real effective exchange rate and the ratio basis total capital variables to the CDS spread was found to be significant and negative for the first three periods.