Energy consumption and carbon emission in Turkey

This thesis investigates the relationship between per capita carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, renewable energy consumption, fossil fuel consumption, and economic growth in Turkey over the period 1974–2023 using annual data. The data were obtained from the Our World in Data and World Bank Development Indicators databases. The stationarity properties of the time series were examined through unit root tests, and since the variables were found to have different integration orders, the ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) cointegration approach was employed. The empirical findings clearly reveal the environmental implications of Turkey's energy consumption structure. Long-run estimations indicate that fossil fuel consumption is the primary determinant of CO₂ emissions with a strong and positive effect. In contrast, renewable energy consumption was found to have a statistically significant and negative impact on emissions. In the short run, economic growth exerts a positive and significant effect on CO₂ emissions, a result consistent with the early stages of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis. However, the long-run impact of economic growth on emissions was found to be statistically insignificant, suggesting that energy composition, technological progress, and environmental regulations play a more decisive role in the long term. The error correction term was found to be negative and statistically significant, indicating that the system converges back to its long-run equilibrium at a rate of approximately 74% per period. Moreover, impulse–response analyses confirmed these results, showing that positive shocks to fossil fuel consumption lead to persistent increases in CO₂ emissions, while increases in renewable energy consumption generate short-term reductions in emissions. The findings of the study highlight the necessity of structural transformation in Turkey's energy policies. The fossil fuel–dependent growth model is shown to be incompatible with environmental sustainability goals. Therefore, scaling up investments in renewable energy, promoting low-carbon technologies, and strengthening environmental regulations are of critical importance. Developing energy policies that ensure supply security while aligning with international climate commitments is a strategic imperative for Turkey, both for enhancing economic resilience and for achieving environmental sustainability. Keywords: Carbon Emissions, Renewable Energy Consumption, ARDL Bounds Testing. Scientific Field Code: Q42, Q53, C32