Üretim kapasiteli çok katmanlı kapalı döngü tedarik zincirinde kullanımdaki ürün bilgisiyle geri dönüş tahmininin kamçı etkisi üzerine etkisi

Closed-loop supply chains recover used products and reduce material use and waste through remanufacturing. However, uncertainties in the return flow propagate through the supply chain, especially in multi-echelon systems. Return variability amplifies the order and inventory fluctuations upstream, also known as the bullwhip effect phenomenon. In this study, we analyze a multi-echelon closed-loop supply chain with production capacity, where the customer demand for a single type of product is met by manufacturing new products and remanufacturing returned cores. A single retailer, wholesaler, distributor, and OEM replenish their inventory with (r, S) periodic review. Effective return estimation is necessary to mitigate the bullwhip effect. Traditional forecasting methods such as the moving average and exponential smoothing disregard the correlation between past sales and future returns. To this end, we utilize information on the orbit size, expected product lifetime, and return probability to estimate returns. Then, we analyze the impact of return estimation with orbit information on the bullwhip behaviour under various factors such as return probability, reorder period, and average product lifetime. We compare the bullwhip behaviour in the forward supply chain with the closed-loop supply chain under different return estimation methods. We also introduce alternative shipment policies to reduce the delivery lead time, and investigate the impact of impulse demand. We observe that closed-loop supply chains with production capacity constraint exhibit different bullwhip behavior than the uncapacitated systems.