The relationship between investor sentiment and gold, dollar and mutual fund prices

The predictability of the prices of financial instruments is one of the most studied and debated issues in financial markets. Many theories have been put forward and developed to model and explain the returns and prices of financial instruments. While some of these developed theories do not consider the psychological factors that investors are affected by when making investment decisions; Kahneman and Tversky (1979) argued that the first steps of the studies were taken and the mood of the investor and the psychological factors that are affected while making decisions may have an effect on the calculation and formation of the price and return of financial instruments. In this study, the relationship between Consumer confidence index and Volatility index, representing investor sentiment, gold, dollar and stock-intensive mutual fund prices from financial instruments were examined in Turkey for the years 2005-2020. According to the findings obtained using the non-parametric quantile causality method; A quantile causality relationship was found between the VIX fear index and the stock intensive mutual fund price, both in the mean and in the variance. In addition, a quantile causality relationship was found between gold and the VIX fear index both in the mean and in the variance. The relationship between consumer confidence index and stock intensive mutual fund price and consumer confidence index dollar prices is also quantile causality in both mean and variance. However, no quantile causality relationship was found between the consumer confidence index and gold prices, neither in the mean nor in the variance.