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Archived Theses
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Turkey labour market: Real-time data collection and insights
Still there is a conventional approach to collect data on dynamics of the labour market such as salaries variation, supply and demand, mobility or insights of educational needs and knowledge workers. This traditional method of survey analysis is not sufficient and can mislead the reality as we are in an era of exponentially increasing data. The main contribution of this thesis aims to propose methodology of data collection in real time, data patterns and architecture to deal with day-to-day labour market variation in Turkey. During 1 year of regular data collection, 314,000 open job positions in 2760 different occupations are classified in terms of pay gap, education surplus and shortage, and velocity of market. The results shows that Turkey's labour market undergoes an increasing shift specially after the Covid-19 effect in terms of skilled based economy, digital transformation, and payroll distribution index in the upcoming years.
Education expenditure and economic growth nexus: Evidence from the MINT
The MINT - Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey - are from the countries projected to attain a significant level of economic success in the years to come. As a result of the demographic and geographic characteristics of these countries, they have the potential to push their economies to a globally competitive standard that is suitable for rapid economic development and advancement. From the prerequisites for the actualisation of such standard is the improvement in the quality of labour and deliberate investment in human capital through education. This study examines the viability of such prospects for the MINT by investigating education expenditure and economic growth relationship in the MINT. Through the use of a panel data set ranging from the year 1994 to the year 2020, the study utilises panel Dynamic Least Squares (DOLS) and Fully Modified Least Squares (FMOLS) methods to examine the impact of education expenditure on growth in the MINT, and the finding from the study shows that there is a long-run relationship between education expenditure and economic growth. Expenditure on education positively affects economic growth in Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey. More specifically, according to findings in this study, it is observed that a unit increase in the percentage of education expenditure will result in a 3 - 4 per cent increase in economic growth in the MINT. Labour also significantly impacts economic growth in the MINT. The results for the countries imply that expenditure on education and human capital should be encouraged, as evidence from this study conforms to findings from the literature.
Investigating the efficiency of airline stock returns in Turkey
Do stock prices reflect all information in the market as the efficient market theory states? Or are there some economic factors that significantly determine stock prices? This empirical study examines the efficient market theory in the airline industry in Turkey. Using daily data of Turkish Airlines and Pegasus Airlines stock prices, and Turkish lira exchange rates from Yahoo Finance, we employed a series of parsimonious GARCH (1;1) models to examine whether exchange rates have significant deterministic effects on Turkish Airlines and Pegasus Airlines' stock returns. We also designed distinct GARCH models including daily, monthly and quarterly dummy variables to test for the existence of calendar anomalies. Our empirical findings indicate that exchange rates significantly affect the mean stock returns and their volatilities. Our calendar anomaly analysis also indicates that different days, months and quarters have significantly different impacts on the mean and volatility of stock returns, thereby corroborating the key finding that Turkish Airlines and Pegasus Airlines' stock returns are not efficient.
An inquiry into the effects of microfinance on social distrust levels among the poor
This thesis makes three contributions to the microfinance literature. It synthesizes the evidence on microfinance and social capital, developing an understanding of how group lending-based microfinance and social capital interact. Drawing on gaps in the literature, it highlights the need for interdisciplinary research that bridges the approaches taken by sociologists and economists for understanding what (actually) works for society. Next, three novel measures of microfinance (prevalence) intensity for cross-country analyses are proposed. We show that these new measures are more precise than existing ones, are highly correlated with the existing measures, and show a higher variance. These characteristics allow the new measures to better exploit cross-country heterogeneity. Lastly, the association between microfinance intensity and social distrust is analysed. Utilizing data extending over two decades, we use the four recent waves of the World Values Survey, corresponding to the years 2001, 2007, 2012, and 2019, and find a significant relationship, robust to various checks, including empirical Bayes, 2-Stage Least Squares, and weak instruments-robust regressions. The relationship is present only in the low-income strata of the society and not in the rich, suggestive of the effect of microfinance in these countries, as microfinance targets the poor strata. Microfinance may affect distrust levels within communities because of the collateralization of social capital. The joint-liability mechanism creates social friction, as has been reported by many qualitative studies in the past, which fractures the levels of trust in society. This thesis is the first to show how microfinance worsens (dis)trust empirically using publicly available data. The study has important implications for microfinance in theory and practice: the results suggest that the incentive structure of the typical group-based microfinance needs revisiting to better account for the social costs inherent in its design; financial inclusion should not come at the expense of social ties and trust.
Examining the relationship between government size and unemployment: Evidence from Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS)
This paper examines the relationship between government size and unemployment in the Economic Community of West African States between 1991 and 2021. The Keynesian theory was used as the basis, and panel cointegration techniques of DOLS, FMOLS, and CCR were employed to ascertain the nature of the relationship. The variables used in this study were unemployment rate, general government consumption expenditure, government investment expenditure, FDI, inflation, GDP per capita growth, and population growth. The findings reveal a statistically significant positive relationship between government size and unemployment in the ECOWAS region. This indicates that expansionary fiscal policies, often advocated by Keynesians, are ineffective in addressing the high levels of unemployment in ECOWAS. The results suggest that the unemployment rate tends to rise as government size expands. However, the relationship between government investment spending and unemployment is negative, meaning a more significant government investment expenditure is likely to reduce unemployment. While population growth shows a strong positive relationship, FDI, Inflation, and GDP per capita growth illustrate weak relationships. In contrast, the relationship between government size and unemployment is negative in the WAEMU region, whereas it manifests a positive correlation in WAMZ. Government investment expenditure, FDI, inflation, GDP per capita growth, and population growth demonstrate weak and inconclusive relationships when WAEMU and WAMZ regions are compared. Consequently, governments within the ECOWAS region should strongly consider reducing the size of their government as a crucial mechanism for addressing the unemployment challenges. Additionally, it is imperative for governments to actively pursue strategies aimed at promoting investment in critical sectors of the economy and prioritize redirecting unnecessary government consumption spending towards labor-reliant public investments as an additional means to tame the rising unemployment rates.
Investigating the relationship between exchange rate and food prices in the West African Economic and Monetary Union states
Food insecurity constitutes a significant obstacle to growth in developing nations. These economies are frequently exposed to acute poverty during internal and foreign crises. Recent events, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine, have stopped the world economy, with severe effects on developing economies. Thus, the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) is experiencing a food crisis, exacerbated by the local currency depreciation as opposed to the trading currency, the US dollar. This thesis is intended to examine the existing transmission effects of the CFA movements on food prices in the WAEMU nations. The study adopts an innovative approach that enables us to investigate the relationship between the depreciation (appreciation) of the CFA franc with that of food prices in the eight WAEMU countries from January 2004 to December 2022. The NARDL results reveal an asymmetric and nonlinear connection between the exchange rate movements and food prices. Appreciations and depreciations affect food prices differently in all WAEMU countries. An appreciation of the exchange rate in the short term has no substantial effect on food costs; however, the local currency depreciation influence positively food prices in Benin, Burkina Faso, Guinea Bissau, Mali, Niger, and Togo. A depreciation of the CFA franc in the long term has a positive impact on all CFA zone nations. In contrast, the CFA franc appreciation has a negative effect on food prices in Benin, Côte d'Ivoire, and Niger. Therefore, the policy recommendation is to regard the asymmetrical relationship in improving the monetary policy of the union, adopt policies that facilitate the financing of food processing and storage firms, and promote and support competitive local products in the common market.
Monetary unions and crypto-currency competition: Implications for financial stability
This thesis contains three full article chapters. Chapter one is a general introduction of the thesis explicitly stating the research gap, purpose and objectives of the essays and their significance. Chapter two develops a model of nonperforming loans that is dependent on the lending gap and the output gap. Using nonperforming loan ratios as a measure of financial soundness, the model is used to examine the financial stability implication of a monetary union on member countries. This is tested in a counterfactual framework using Ghana, a member of the yet to be implemented West African Monetary Zone. Chapter three reviews the literature on Hayek's Denationalisation of Money proposal prior to and after the proliferation of cryptocurrencies. It also evaluates the extent to which cryptocurrencies align with Hayek's proposal in the denationalisation of money. It is concluded that, opinions on Hayek's proposal subtly changed for critical to cautious acclaim. Also, it is concluded that custodial stablecoins best reflects Hayek's proposal and are the crypto asset most likely to survive government legibility regulations. In chapter four, the impact crypto-currency substitution, proxied by cryptocurrency returns, on exchange rate volatility is examined empirically for the case of Nigeria. Cryptocurrency returns is found to have a positive impact on volatility of the Naira.
Inter-dynamics between corruption, government effectiveness, and economic growth: A case study for West Africa
The data surveys conducted by Afrobarometer and Transparency International Corruption Perception Index indicate that the level of corruption and government underperformance in West Africa has reached extremely concerning levels. The study aimed to investigate the complex relationship between corruption, government effectiveness, and GDP growth trends across sixteen West African Nations from 2003- 2021 utilizing panel data analysis. The study employed a unique technique using the causality results to form the model's functional and regression form. Upon these results, the study utilized a dynamic panel-data estimation, a two-step system Generalized Methods of Moments by Arellano and Bond. This method effectively addresses potential issues such as sample size, autocorrelation, heterogeneity, and endogeneity and is asymptotically more potent than the regular one-step GMM. Using this method, it was found that a negative relationship exists between corruption and GDP growth in the region. Also, a significant negative relationship exists between government effectiveness and corruption. The findings also showed that the relationship between GDP growth and government effectiveness within the region is positive and significant. These results support the "Sand in the Wheels Hypothesis". Therefore, the study recommends urgent structural change within the administration to ensure effective and quality institutional structure, focus on building effective anti corruption agencies to fight against systematic corruption within the governing body and ensure accountability, and establish development strategies tailored to contemporary contexts rather than outdated colonial-era systems. Keywords: Corruption, Dynamics, Effectiveness, GMM, Governance, Growth.
Three essays on firm performance constraints: Empirical evidence from European and Central Asia countries
This study examines the main performance constraints faced by enterprises in Europe and Central Asia. The research consists of three separate essays, each addressing specific research questions, and uses different methodologies, including descriptive statistics, ordinal regression, and Bayesian analysis, tailored to the unique nature and objectives of each essay. The study identifies five key barriers to business performance: Tax rates, financial resource access, skilled labor availability, unregistered firm competition, and political instability. This dissertation departs from previous studies and contributes to the existing academic literature in several ways. Firstly, it introduces evaluating firm performance via fixed asset acquisition or long-term investments, diverging from traditional indicators like sales, employment, and profitability. In addition, the study introduces previously overlooked constructs such as tax bribery, regulatory complexity, and the frequency of inspections by tax authorities, which provide valuable insights into why firms perceive tax rates as a major impediment to their performance. Second, from an econometric perspective, previous research on the determinants of performance at the micro level has typically used traditional binary and ordinal models. Ordinal models, however, assume that the effect of each independent variable on the probability of each outcome level is proportional, which is known as the proportional odds or parallel lines assumption. This assumption is often challenging to meet, and its violation can impact estimate robustness. The study discovered a breach in the proportional odds assumption yet found only minor differences in the model predictions as a result. While the determinants of firm performance have been studied from a frequentist statistical or econometric perspective, criticism has arisen about the limited quantification of uncertainty in the estimates. In contrast, this study uses the Bayesian approach, which is more flexible and provides more reliable estimates of the predictions. Keywords: Bayesian approach, Capacity Utilization, Credit Constraint, Financial Obstacle, Fixed Assets, SMEs.
Examining the determinants of consumer perception of inflation
This study examines the determinants of consumer perception of inflation in 2023 using the survey data collected from Moroccan, Turkish, and Italian households. Uncovering the determinants of perceived inflation is important to make effective communication strategies and monetary policies. While previous studies explored explanatory factors such as living standards, region, professional status, age, marital status, and psychological factors, this research focuses on the effect of media influence, peers'influence, consumer sentiment index, memory, and past perceptions of inflation, alongside age, gender, marital status, education, professional status, living standard, savings, and inflation knowledge. The study collected survey data online. It utilized two regression models—a multiple regression model estimation of perceived inflation and an ordered probit model to evaluate the consistency of results with the multiple regression. The empirical results indicate that perceived inflation across Turkey, Morocco, and Italy is impacted by various factors, including education level, living standard, media influence, inflation knowledge, and past perceptions of inflation. These factors are common across the three countries. However, when examining country-specific differences, there are some variations. For instance, while factors such as peers' influence, media, and past inflation perceptions play significant roles in shaping perceived inflation in Turkey, various factors such as consumer sentiment index, memory, peers' influence, and past inflation perceptions are more influential in Morocco. In Italy, factors such as media, memory, and past inflation perceptions have a notable impact on perceived inflation. The distinctions through countries indicate the importance of considering socio-economic and cultural factors unique to each country. Policymakers should consider the role of inflation education campaigns, media and peer influence in shaping inflation perceptions and leverage these channels to spread accurate information, thereby, greater public understanding and more confidence in monetary policy decisions.
Gender wage gap and international trade: Evidence from Turkey's manufacturing sector
Gender wage gap is a widely discussed issue in labor economics. This paper contributes to the literature on three fronts. First, the overall gender wage gap present in Turkey's manufacturing sector is analyzed using updated data from the years 2006, 2010, and 2014. Next, the effect of international trade on the gender wage gap is investigated. We first decompose the overall gender wage gap to its explained and unexplained components using the Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition method. Afterward, we use both the Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition and OLS regression to compare the gender wage gap in the tradable and non-tradable sectors. Then each year is decomposed separately to analyze the gender wage gap over time. Our results show that there is a gender wage gap of 2.6% in Turkey's manufacturing sector due to discrimination. In addition, the regression results reveal that the gender wage gap in the tradable sectors is 3.3%, while in the non-tradable sectors it is 1.9%. The decomposition results show the gender wage gap in the tradable sectors to be 4.2%, while in the non-tradable sectors, it is 3.2%. Lastly, there has been an increase of the gender wage gap from 2006 to 2014. We conclude that, in contradiction to Becker's theory, the gender wage gap in Turkey's manufacturing sector is higher in the tradable sectors than in the non-tradable sectors.
Long-run and short-run determinants of the private pension contributions in Turkey
An efficient private pension system can play a significant role in maintaining stable economic growth primarily through a higher savings rate, capital stock, and social welfare. Turkey is one of the relatively new countries to adopt a private pension scheme to promote higher household savings. In this study, we explore the determinants that affect a household's contribution to the private pension system. Using time-series monthly data from 2004 to 2018, we examine the long-run and short-run relationship amongst variables via the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). We also conduct Impulse Response analysis to examine the response of variables to economic shocks. We find that the real exchange rate, deposit interest rate, change in the gross domestic product are negatively associated with per contribution in the system. Moreover, the gold price index and the BIST 100 index are positively related to per contribution level. However, we do not find any significant relationship between per contribution and changes in the inflation rate. The government incentive shows no real additional movement in the system. Keywords: Cointegration, Private Pension Accounts, Vecm, Turkey
Colonial origins of comparative development in Ghana
Can colonial rule explain part of the development divergence between Northern and Southern Ghana? To answer this question, first I relied on precolonial ethnic institutions and other socioeconomic-related variables to empirically prove that the North, which is significantly less developed than the South today, had been relatively more developed than the South in precolonial times. Then I showed that during the colonial period, the North received significantly scant colonial public investments as compared to the South. However, I found that past colonial public investments have robust, permanent positive impact on current development outcomes in Ghana. This suggests that places that received scant colonial investments are comparatively less developed today in Ghana. Lastly, the study found that conditioned on past colonial public investments the current development gap between the two regions reduces considerably. Consequently, the study argues that if the North had received a fair share of colonial investments it would have maintained its precolonial development pace and would have been relatively more developed today.
Economic engagement of refugees analyzing success factors and barriers of Syrian refugee entrepreneurs in Turkey: Case of Istanbul
The main purpose of this thesis is to explore the success factors and barriers of Syrian refugee entrepreneurs in Turkey. According to the literature, four categories have been identified: individual success factors, environmental success factors, individual barriers, and environmental barriers. In total, forty predictors were examined by conducting a survey with Syrian entrepreneurs in Istanbul. A total of 244 entrepreneurs have been analyzed using multinomial regression analysis. Findings suggest that environmental success factors including access to capital and access to information related to the business are major and positive contributors to the success of Syrian entrepreneurs in Turkey. However, educational attainment, age, and social status are individual success factors that showed a negative relationship on the success of Syrian entrepreneurs. In terms of barriers, the results suggested a significant relationship between the success of entrepreneurs and the environmental barriers including the negative perception of Syrian refugees among locals, Negative portrayal of Syrian refugees in host Country's media, and locals' sense of intense competition in the labor market. Individual barriers include a low level of education, equivalence of degrees, and host country language proficiency. The findings of this study are important to policy makers in the host countries in particular and to all stakeholders interested in the refugee affairs. Programs on the economic engagement of refugees, as part of a more comprehensive integration of refugees, could be better designed in light of the finding of this study.
Analysis of the precautionary saving motive using income risk as a measure of uncertainty: Evidence from Turkey
The precautionary saving motive is when consumers save money or accumulate more wealth to insure themselves against future income uncertainties or unforeseen events which may lead to any unexpected decrements in their future income (Warneryd, 1999; Keynes, 1936). This thesis aims to investigate the precautionary saving motive of Turkish households. I investigate this issue by constructing a pseudo panel data set from the Turkish Household Budget Survey data between 2011 and 2017. Then, I conduct a cohort-level analysis and explore the relationship between the variance of income growth and saving as well as total net-worth. So I use the variance of income growth as my measure of income risk and apply a pooled OLS regression to determine the impact of income growth variance on saving and total net-worth. The results show a positive impact of the variance of income growth on saving and total net-worth, thereby leading me to conclude that there's a precautionary saving motive among Turkish households.
The relationship between selected determinants of market risk and the financial performance of participation banks in Turkey: A comparative study with conventional banks
The main purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between the selected determinants of market risk with the financial performance of participation banks in Turkey and compare it with conventional banks. The market risk determinants are interest rate (INT), the exchange rate (FX), inflation (INFL), and GDP per capita. The financial performance determinants for both participation and conventional banks are, return on assets (ROA) and return on equity (ROE). There are secondary data used for 3 participation banks and 5 conventional banks performing in Turkey. The time period of this study is from the year 2010 to 2019. The tests applied in the study are panel data tests like the Augmented Dickey-Fuller Unit Root test, Johansen co-integration test, and Granger Causality test by using the E-views program. The study results conclude that interest rate, exchange rate, inflation rate, and GDP per capita have a highly significant positive long-run relationship with return on assets and return on equity of participation banks in Turkey. However, the variables are not significantly related to each other in the short run in the interval time of lag 2. There is less significant positive effect shown for conventional banks compared to participation banks in the long run. It is recommended for future studies to increase the sample size and include more determinant factors to determine the financial performance of participation and conventional banks in Turkey
Examining the effect of threat of intervention in crypto market: A case study of bitcoin and ripple
In recent years, the volatility in the prices of most cryptocurrencies has increased relative to other currencies or securities. This thesis is concerned with the investigation of the threat of intervention in the cryptocurrency market and how it may lead to changes that affect the price and volume return volatility of the currencies under study with the formulation of the Threshold or GJR-GARCH model to assess the volatility of Bitcoin and XRP prices and volumes returns in the market. The data set begins from 1 January 2014 to 15 February 2021. Our results from the GJR-GARCH model shows a negatively significant relationship between news shocks and Bitcoin's price returns volatility, whereas the relationship between news shocks and XRP's price returns volatility isn't significant. On the other hand, volume returns of XRP have a positively significant relationship with news shocks whilst volume returns of Bitcoin do not have a significant relationship. Past shocks and conditional variance shocks are all significant determinants of today's return volatility. These findings confirm that, Ripple Company controls the prices of XRP from surging by keeping the coin off the market. Investors of Bitcoin don't pay much attention to shocks because they always believe Bitcoin will gain its value, hence higher risks yield higher gains.
The impact of three crises: 1994, 2001 and 2008-09 on the general unemployment in Turkey
The economy of Turkey has gone through a series of economic crises since the 1980s even after the continuous reforms put in place by the government which were market- oriented. The labor market has gone through changes with the advent of each of the crisis. The main aim of this thesis is to check how the economic crisis of 1994, 2001 and 2008-09 affected the labor market of Turkey by looking specifically at the unemployment during these periods. The study used Vector Autoregression X (VARX) model to conduct annual time series analysis from the period of 1990 to 2019 to estimate how these crises (exogenous variables) affected unemployment (endogenous variables) in these periods. The empirical results show a positive and significant impact of the crisis of 2001 and 2008-09 on unemployment while the crisis of 1994 does not have any impact on unemployment. The 2001 crisis affected unemployment most with the male labor experiencing more of the impact than their female counterpart.
Comparative analysis of Beveridge Curve during global financial crisis and COVID-19 crisis in Turkey
Following the impact of Global Financial Crisis (GFC), there has been increasing interest in the study of the Beveridge curve. This thesis analyses the unemployment and vacancy rate dynamics for the Turkish labour market during the period of global financial crisis and Covid-19 in the mirror of Beveridge curve. The visual inspection of the Beveridge curve reveal that the labour market is inefficient due to a shift in Beveridge curve away from the origin. It is evident that both unemployment rate and vacancy rate increase over the period with a counter clockwise (clockwise) movement of the curve for Global Financial Crisis (Covid-19). The visual inspection shaped the understanding of the unemployment-vacancy behaviour. The Beveridge curve shift for the labour market is attributed to cyclical and structural factors within the economy. Our empirical results show youth unemployment to be the significant factor determining unemployment dynamics both in the short run and long run. GDP growth and construction sector employment are also shown to exert great influence on unemployment dynamics in Turkey during the sample period. In addition, we found that GFC and Covid-19 have no significant effect on the Beveridge curve. Vacancy rate expected to have a negative relationship with unemployment rate is shown to have a positive insignificant effect. This is in contradiction to the Beveridge curve proposition. This implies that vacancy rate in Turkey falls short of the unemployment number in the labour market. There are no consistent job creations to match the number of people seeking for jobs in the economy. Based on this, the Turkish labour market is characterised by inefficiencies.
E-commerce impact on trade openness: The case of emerging and developed European countries
Today e-commerce plays an indispensable role in many economic activities by providing remedies to some economic problems. E-commerce not only provides an efficient solution to the scarcity of resources among countries but also ensures an effective allocation of resources. It serves as a powerhouse of world economic growth and effectively sustains cross-border trade, thereby stimulating economic efficiency. Yet today, its full potential is far beyond reach. This research employs quarterly data on e-commerce, trade openness, tariffs, exchange rate, foreign direct investment, industry size, and gross domestic product in 14 European countries. Countries are grouped into developed European countries and emerging European countries for the period 2009Q1-2020Q4. The study applies panel data analysis through a fixed effect model and FGLS estimation technique. In both developed and emerging European countries, results show that e-commerce has a positive and statistically significant impact on trade openness. However, a higher impact of e-commerce on trade openness among developed European countries is recorded. This is evident from the higher coefficient value and a strongly statistically significant P-value. This may be a result of highly developed infrastructure such as proper road networks, address systems, and high-performing institutions together with more relaxed measures and laws governing the operation of e-commerce activities in these developed European countries as compared to stringent measures and laws governing e-commerce activities among emerging European countries. In both developed and emerging European economies, results show a negative correlation between trade openness and tariffs. Among developed European countries, GDP, exchange rate, industry size, and foreign direct investment recorded a positive effect on trade openness. Whereas in the case of emerging European economies, all variables show a positive impact on trade openness with the exception of foreign trade investment.
The relationship between financial development and economic growththe case of ECOWAS from 1975 to 2020
Financial development has long been seen as an important factor of economic growth in the history of developmental economics. Additionally, substantial data from scholarly literature indicates that financial literacy and awareness are prerequisites for any real economic progress. In the case of ECOWAS, the notion of financial development as a prerequisite for economic growth is critical to macroeconomics. However, none of the studies specifically examined the level of financial development in ECOWAS member countries from 1975 to 2020. On this account, this master's thesis investigates the relevance of financial development in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) member nations' pursuit of economic progress. In the attempt to answer the research questions, the World Bank database was used to obtain the data for this quantitative investigation. GDP growth rate, Net Domestic Credit, Government Expense and Trade Openness were the four primary factors included in the statistics of this study for each ECOWAS member state. This study analyzed the data using STATA to test the hypothesis of interest, which is ideal for interpreting panel data studies. The research discovered a substantial relationship between economic growth and financial development across ECOWAS member nations. Keywords: Economic Growth, Financial Deepening, Financial Development Financial Institutions, Political Instability, Price Stability.
The role of monetary policy and financial development in ensuring technological progress and their economic effects
The creation and adoption of novel and improved products, processes, services, or business tactics—collectively known as technological innovation—provide benefits for society and boost the economic efficiency and competitiveness of companies. Consequently, understanding the factors that drive technological innovation is crucial for achieving sustainable development and fostering economic growth. Monetary policy effectively stimulates technological innovation and a weak economy, even when short-term interest rates have already reached zero. Well-functioning of financial markets enhances the transmission of monetary policies and can lead to innovation among emerging countries. The study aims to investigate the impact of monetary policy and financial development on technological innovation for BRICS countries using the ARDL model. While previous studies employed R&D and TFP variables to measure the technological innovation, this research uses three different innovation indicators in its empirical analysis, namely patent application by residents, non-residents, and technological innovation separately. ARDL model is commonly used to analyze long-term and short-term variable connections and policy outcomes. The findings of the study provide several valuable results. First, loose monetary policy greatly enhances innovation among residents, and these measures greatly boost inventiveness and significantly improve technological innovation due to well- developed financial markets in the long run and mixed relationships in the short run. Secondly, the impact of contractionary monetary policy among non-residents is mixed. Emerging countries with proactive intervention and lower volatility, which have supported stable growth, promote innovation with contractionary monetary policy, and financial development is always positively related to innovation. Both are critical to ensuring the long-term viability of the economy. The findings also indicate that having a flexible monetary policy has a significant positive influence on activities related to technological innovation. Lastly, countries experiencing high inflation and interest rates tend to foster financial independence among individuals, reducing their reliance on bank loans. Keywords: Financial Development, Monetary Policy, Technological Innovation.
Exploring volatility, structural breaks, and economic interactions in the turkish stock market
The thesis comprises three empirical studies. Chapter 2 analyzes the impact of exchange rate volatility on sectoral stock volatility by utilizing intraday volatility measures derived from daily data across 27 Borsa Istanbul sectors over a period of 20 years (from April 29, 2003, to April 25, 2023). I critique traditional GARCH models and the application of aggregate data, which may lead to biased results. The findings demonstrate significant sectoral heterogeneities: all sectors are positively influenced by exchange rate volatility, with the basic metal sector being the most responsive, followed by banking and transportation. In contrast, the sports, investment trust, and construction sectors exhibit minimal sensitivity, underscoring the necessity for policymakers to devise sector-specific strategies aimed at stabilizing financial markets. Chapter 3 examines structural breaks in the Istanbul stock market, focusing on the seven largest sectors by market capitalization. I critique traditional breakpoint analysis for overlooking return variance breaks and employ the supMZ test to identify breakpoints in stock returns and the TL/Dollar exchange rate from 2004 to 2023. Key findings reveal simultaneous breakpoints across sectors, particularly in the years linked to major economic events in 2006, 2008, and 2018. Furthermore, more breakpoints were identified in the exchange rate than in sectoral stock prices, likely due to exposure to international events. The analysis indicates that the buy-and-hold strategy surpasses the "in and out" strategy across most sectors and the exchange rate, except for the financial and banking sectors. Chapter 4 takes a macroeconomic perspective, linking the stock market to financial liquidity needs functions (M1 and M2) through Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Granger causality analyses. It reveals that M1 and M2 financial liquidity needs are cointegrated with real stock prices, real income, deposit interest rates, and real exchange rates. The wealth effect from real stock prices significantly affects financial liquidity needs, with M2 being more responsive to stock price fluctuations while M1 remains stable, highlighting the stock market's role in shaping long-term financial liquidity needs and monetary policy implications in Turkey.
The role of ict, renewable energy sources, green innovation, and institutional quality in achieving environmental sustainability in OECD countries
As OECD countries strive to meet the UN sustainability development goal thirteen (take urgent actions to combat climate change and its impact), this study explores the vital role of information and communication technology (ICT), green innovation (GINV), renewable energy resources (RESS), and institutional quality (INSQ) in achieving sustainable environmental outcomes. I used two control variables (trade openness and GDP per capita) and the primary variable. Despite the wealth of studies on OECD nations' environmental sustainability, there is no previous joint examination of the roles of ICT, RESS, GINV, and INSQ. This paper bridges the gap by empirically investigating these variables' individual and combined roles on environmental sustainability and presenting a more comprehensive analysis to provide a more integrated framework to inform good policy design towards ecological sustainability in OECD nations. Drawing from the methodologies and findings from existing literature from African and BRICS economics, this study extends the scope to the OECD economics over the period from 1996 to 2021; this study employs a range of advanced econometric techniques to ensure the reliability of the analysis, used secondgeneration panel unit root tests to account for heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence among OECD economies. The study employs cointegration tests to verify the long-term equilibrium relationship among ICT, RESS, GINV, INSQ, and environmental sustainability indicators. The fully modified ordinary least squares (FMLOS) and dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) estimations are used to estimate the long-term relationships while addressing potential issues of endogeneity and serial correlation. This research indicates that in the long run, information and communication technology, renewable energy sources, green innovation, institutional quality, and trade openness are positively related to environmental sustainability. It also estimated the joint effect of variable RESS and INSQ, taking ICT as moderators. The results are overall significant in the long run. Keywords: Environmental Sustainability, GDP Per Capita, Green Innovation, Information and Communication Technology, Institutional Quality, Renewable Energy Source.
Twitter and inflation dynamics: Investigating the role of twitter sentiment in Türkiye's hybrid new keynesian phillips curve
This inquiry explores the role of Twitter-based sentiment in shaping inflation expectations within Türkiye's Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) in a closed economy framework. By incorporating a novel Twitter-based inflation expectations variable (TWT), derived using Natural Language Processing (NLP) with the BERT model, as a forward-looking component, this research offers an alternative to traditional methods like rational expectations and survey data. The findings reveal that while backward-looking inflation (past inflation) remains the dominant driver of expectations, Twitter sentiment significantly influences forward-looking expectations, though with a relatively weaker effect. This suggests that while past inflation plays a crucial role, TWT offers useful, up-to-date observations of the public's views on future inflation. The study also shows that in this closed model, the output gap has minimal significance, reinforcing the notion that inflation persistence remains central to Türkiye's inflation dynamics. The results suggest that policymakers should consider integrating Twitter sentiment into their strategies, enabling more effective and dynamic communication with the public. By better understanding and responding to inflation expectations through both traditional and social media channels, especially Twitter, authorities can enhance the credibility of inflation-targeting frameworks and potentially reduce inflation more efficiently.
Inflation pressures and a search for an anchor: A case study of the Wamz region
This study seeks to identify which of three major international currencies could serve as an optimal anchor for selected countries in the ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States). These selected countries include The Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Nigeria, and Sierra Leone. The price, output, and trade data sourced from various international data portals like the World Development Indicators of the World Bank and the International Financial Statistics of the International Monetary Fund are used to compute comovement relationships between prices and outputs. And then, by employing autoregressive (AR) models, the research analyses and establishes a more statistically rigorous relationship amongst these macroeconomic indicators—gross domestic product (GDP), consumer price index (CPI), and bilateral trade. The study highlights how and which among the United States dollar (USD), the euro, and the Chinese yuan could potentially benefit these countries by influencing economic performance and overall stability, particularly if countries in the region were to dollarize. The issue of persistent price instability—more specifically, inflationary pressures—that has plagued Anglophone West African economies for years has been receiving increasing attention in recent times, renewed by global economic shocks and inflation woes associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, geopolitical tension, and other disruptive international events. These new challenges have accentuated the need for more reliable monetary frameworks across the Economic Community of West African States region. The intent of the findings is to offer policymakers insights as they consider future monetary strategies. The study aims to influence decision-making related to exchange rates, inflation control, and broader regional economic integration efforts.
The role of financial literacy in promoting financial inclusion
Financial literacy plays an enormous role in enhancing inclusive finance by providing consumers with the skills and knowledge needed to access and utilize formal financial products and services efficiently. As one of the most critical challenges for financial inclusion, this research investigates the effect of financial literacy on financial inclusion in Sub-Saharan East African countries reported by the global Findex data base (2021). In developing African countries majority of the population, especially in rural areas remains out of service from formal financial institution system. Utilizing Data from the World Bank's Global Findex database (2021), the study employs logistic regression to analyze how financial literacy and other related variables impacts financial inclusion (access to formal bank account). The study also includes essential inclusion barriers such as structural obstacles, socio-cultural factors and economic levels to assess their moderating impacts on financial inclusio. The study finds that financial literacy proxied as educational level significantly improves financial inclusion, yet its influence is constrained by contingent barriers for each circumstance of the country. The study revealed that most barriers such as poverty, lack of necessary documentation and distance from formal financial institution are significantly impact financial inclusion. The research also highlights the need for integrated policy interventions that combine financial education with tackling inclusion barriers to provide appropriate financial products and services to the unprivileged population in the country.
Forecasting electricity prices in Turkey: A comparison of classical econometrics and machine learning techniques
Liberalization of electricity markets trends has been widening in the world since 1990s and the process is still continuing in many countries. As a result of liberalization, the private retailer and distribution companies role has increased in the markets. Like other countries, government enterprises was operating the Turkish Electricity market before 2000s. However, Turkish Government enacted a electricity market law for deregulation of the market in 2001. Accordingly, Turkish Electricity Trading and Contracting (TETAS) was established in 2001 with the aim of sustaining the energy trade and reach a competitive electricity market. Afterwards, Day-Ahead market and Intra-Day markets are established in the following years. As a result of the liberalization process, forecasting electricity prices has become an important requirement in energy companies' decision-making process to maximize profits by offering competitive bid and ask rates. On the contrary to other time series, electiricity prices have complex structures and dynamic determinants which makes difficult to forecast prices. For examle, one of the determinants of the electricity is demand and it is known that demand is highly related with temperatures. In summer, electricity demand expeced to increase due to cooling needs. However, it may change accordingly with tempetures. Futhermore, electiricty demand is also changing according to hour of the day or day of the week and so on. Another thing is that, generation source and type and the amount may also affect the prices. Consequently, electiricty prices are generally representing complex non-linear structures. There are many methods for forecasting electricity prices. However, artificial neural networks are known to be good forecasting method for covering non-linear effect of the prices. On the other hand, time series methods are easy to forecast and interpret the relationships. Lastly, quantile regressions are capturing the different conditional distributions and may be useful for capturing spkies. Therefore, artificial neural networks, time series and quantile regression is used. First, non-linear autoregressive network with exogenous inputs (NARX) is used with Levenberg-Marquardt learning algorithm. It is a two-layer feedforward network with sigmoid activation function. It is known that load is one of the most important factor affecting the prices, thus it is taken as inputs. Furthermore, to take seasonality in account, hour of the day, day of the week, season of the year, previous prices and other inputs are considered. The next day's prices are forecasted in out-of-sample data with multi-step ahead method and rolling window mechanism. Second, autoressive moving average (ARMA) models with different AR(p) and MA(q) orders are applied. To estimate a model and forecasts series in the model, series should be stationary and stable. Ng-Perron test is applied for testing whether series is stationary. Price series is found to be stationary. Next day's prices are forecasted in out-of-sample data with multi-step ahead method and rolling window mechanism. Furhermore, Optimal (p,q) are chosen after trial and error proces. Thirdly, ARMA models with exogenous variables are applied to see whether exogenous variables are affacting the performance of the autoregressive model. As in the ARMA model, series should be stationary. As in the NARX model, load is taken as inputs. Besides, hour of the day, day of the week and other variables are considered. Next day's prices are forecasted in out-of-sample data with multi-step ahead method and rolling window mechanism. Finally, quantile regression is applied. Different comibations of exogenous variables applied for different quantiles. Next day's prices are forecasted separetly for each quantile with multi-step ahead forecast methods and rolling windows mechanism. All methods with different combinations of the models are evaluted with mean absolute percentage error(MAPE) in out-of-sample data. According to findings, the NARX method outperformed the other models and forecast the electricity prices in TEM with lowest errors.
Türkiye şeker piyasası işleyişi özelinde bir ekonomik model olarak kooperatif: Tarım sanayi entegrasyonu ve Pankobirlik incelemesi
Kooperatifler, belirli bir alanda ortak fayda elde edebilmek için ekonomik birimlerin bilinçli ve gönüllü şekilde bir araya gelerek, iş birliği yapmak amacıyla oluşturduğu ortaklı kuruluşlardır. Piyasa mekanizması içinde kooperatifler mal ve hizmetlerin alınmasında ve pazarlanmasında/satılmasında ortaklarının pazarlık ve rekabet gücünü arttırma, sermaye birikimini sağlama ve sürdürülebilir kılma, piyasaların yapısını ve işleyişini düzenleme görevlerini üstlenir ve ekonomik büyümeye katkıda bulunurlar. Bu amaçla tezin ilk bölümünde kooperatifleşme ve tarım-sanayi entegrasyonunda kooperatiflerin rolü üzerinde durulmuş. İkinci bölümde ise üst birlik örgütlenmesini tam olarak sağlamış ve şeker piyasasını düzenleme konusunda etkin rol oynayan Pankobirlik (Pancar Ekicileri Kooperatifleri Birliği) ele alınmıştır. Pankobirlik faaliyet gösterdiği şeker sektöründeki yasal düzenlemeler çerçevesinde şeker fabrikalarını bünyesine katarak tarım sanayi bütünleşmesinde başarılı bir dikey entegrasyon gerçekleştirmektedir. Ayrıca kooperatif üyelerine tarımsal girdi temin eden ve üretilen ürünlerin daha etkin şekilde değerlendirilmesini sağlayan ve nihayetinde sürdürülebilir büyümeyi hedefleyen yatırımları hayata geçirmektedirler. Bu nedenle, ekonomik model olarak koopeartif yapılanmasının Pankobirlik örneği ve Türkiye şeker piyasası üzerinden değerlendirilmesi, diğer iyi uygulama örnekleri ile karşılaştırılması bu başarılı örgütlenmenin yaygınlaştırılması adına önemlidir. Ayrıca şeker, dünyada devlet müdahalesine en çok maruz kalan ürünlerden biridir. Üretim ve tarife kotaları, yüksek korumalar ve ticaret antlaşmaları, ülkelerin uyguladığı politikalar dünya şeker ticaretine kısıtlamalar getirmektedir. Türkiye şeker sektöründe de dünya şeker piyasalarında olduğu gibi yasal düzenlemeler ile kontrol altında tutulmaya çalışılmaktadır. Bu yasal düzenlemelere ek olarak Türkiye şeker sektörü piyasaya kamu, özel sektör ve kooperatif yapılanmalarının ürün arz etmesi sebebiyle de farklılaşmaktadır. Bu nedenle de Pancar Ekicileri Kooperatiflerinin ekonomik etkinliklerinin şeker piyasasındaki diğer iki oyuncunun yani kamu ve özel sektör işletmelerinin işleyişi ve ekonomiye katkıları anlamında değerlendirmek tarımda sürdürülebilir ekonomik kalkınma için önem taşımaktadır.
Sosyal yardımların yoksulluk üzerine etkileri: Türkiye örneği
ÖZET Bu çalışmada, Türkiye'de yapılan sosyal yardımların yoksulluk üzerindeki etkisi incelenmiştir. Bu amaçla Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu (TÜİK) tarafından yayınlanan Gelir Yaşam Koşulları Anketi (GYKA) mikro verisi kullanılmıştır. Sosyal yardımların yoksulluk üzerine olan etkisi 2006 ve 2016 yılları için ayrı ayrı araştırılmıştır. Yoksulluk ölçütü olarak göreli yoksulluk ölçüsü kullanılmıştır. Bu ölçü hanelerin medyan gelirlerinin %40'ı, %50'si ve %60'ı alınarak hesaplanmaktadır. Bu çalışmadaki analizlerde yoksulluk sınırı olarak medyan gelirin %50'si baz alınmıştır. Bu sınırın altında kalan haneler yoksul olarak kabul edilmiştir. Bu ölçüte göre 2006- 2016 yılları arasında Türkiye'de yoksulluk sınırı altında kalanların oranı azalma eğilimindedir. Türkiye'de devlet tarafından yapılan sosyal yardım harcamaları 2012 öncesinde farklı kurum ve kanuni düzenlemeler aracılığıyla yürütülürken; 2012 yılında Aile ve Sosyal Politikalar Bakanlığı'nın (ASPB) kurulmasıyla tek çatı altında toplanmıştır. Bakanlığın faaliyete geçmesiyle birlikte sosyal yardım harcamalarında önemli ölçüde artış meydana gelmiştir. 2012 yılında 11 milyar TL olan sosyal yardım harcamları, 2016 yılına gelindiğinde yaklaşık 3 katına çıkarak 32 milyar TL'ye ulaşmıştır. Tezin ana amacı olarak Türkiye'de son yıllarda artış gösteren sosyal yardım harcamalarının yoksul olma olasılığı üzerindeki etkisi incelenmiştir. Bu doğrultuda yoksul olma olasılığı için hanenin gelirinin medyan gelirin %50'sinin altında kalma durumu kullanılmıştır. Haneye yapılan fert ve hanehalkı bazındaki sosyal yardımların toplamı eşdeğerlik ölçütüne göre düzeltilerek toplam sosyal yardım geliri olarak tanımlanmıştır. Hanenin yoksul olma olasılığı; tanımlanan toplam sosyal yardım gelirleri, hanehalkının ortalama eğitim yılı, hanehalkı reisinin cinsiyeti, yaşı, medeni durumu ve sosyal güvenlik kurumuna kayıtlı olma durumu kullanılarak tahmin edilmiştir. Açıklanan değişkenin ikili yapıya sahip olmasından dolayı Logit model uygulanmıştır. Modele ait marjinal etkiler incelendiğinde ise eğitim yılı ortalamasının artması yoksul olma olasılığını azaltıcı etkiye sahiptir. Hanehalkı reisi kadın olan hanelerin, reisi erkek olan hanelere göre yoksul olma olasılığı daha fazladır. Ancak hanehalkı reisinin medeni durumu yoksul olma olasılığı üzerinde istatistiki olarak anlamlı bir etkiye sahip değildir. Hanehalkı reisinin yaşı ile hanenin yoksul olma olasılığı arasında negatif yönlü ilişki bulunmaktadır. Beklenildiği üzere kayıtdışı çalışan hanehalkı reislerinin hanelerinin yoksul olma olasılığı daha fazladır. Nihai hedefimiz doğrultusunda hanehalkının aldığı toplam sosyal yardım miktarı yoksul olma olasılığını azaltıcı etkiye sahiptir. Alınan sosyal yardım miktarının ortalamadan her 1000 TL artış göstermesi hanehalkının yoksul olma olasılığını ortalama %8 azaltmaktadır.
The impact of interest on income inequality: An empirical investigation
In this study, the effect of interest on income inequality is measured through the effect of real interest rate and the interest payments of the government on Gini index and income shares of income decile groups. By using a sample which includes the data of 26 countries between 1998-2014, we concluded that increases in both real interest rates and interest payments increases income inequality by increasing Gini coefficient and transferring a proportional income from the bottom and middle income groups — generally from bottom 60% — to the top decile and thus reducing social welfare, as this study reveals the exploitative nature of interest on the poor.
Türkiye'de konvansiyonel ve katılım bankacılığı karlılıklarını etkileyen faktörler
Finansal sektör ülke ekonomilerinin performansını arttırmak veya potansiyelini ortaya çıkarabilmek adına önemli yapı taşlarından birisidir. Özellikle Türkiye gibi gelişmekte olan ülkelerin fon ihtiyacını sağlama konusunda önemli görevleri bulunmaktadır. Bankacılık finansal sektörün en büyük oyuncusu olarak farklı türlere sahiptir. Bunlardan birisi katılım bankacılığıdır. Katılım bankaları diğer türlere göre çok yeni olsa da müslümanlar için önemli bir açığı kapaması nedeniyle önemlidir ve hızlı büyümektedir. Türkiye için de özellikle 2000'li yıllardan itibaren benzer durumdan bahsetmek mümkündür. İslami bankacılık başta bankacılık sektörünün en önemli enstrümanı sayılacak faizi ve diğer bazı unsurları yasaklamıştır. Bu sebeple iki banka türü arasında yapısal farklılıklar olması normaldir. Bu çalışmada bu farkların karlılık anlamında da farklara yol açıp açmadığı tespit edilmeye çalışılmıştır. Literatürde yapılan çalışmalar incelendiğinde karlılık göstergeleri olarak ROA, ROE ve NIM kullanılmaktadır. Bunların belirleyicileri olarak geniş yelpazede değişken bulunsa da bu çalışmada geçmiş dönemin verileri, sermaye, operasyonel maliyetler, takipteki krediler, net komisyon gelirleri, mevduat faizi oran farkı, market konsantrasyonu, likit aktifler, finansal derinleşme ve faiz kullanılmıştır. Her bir karlılık değişkeni için etkileri ayrı ayrı hesaplanmıştır. Genel olarak geçmiş dönem değişkenler, sermaye, net ücret komisyon, market konsatrasyonu ve finansal derinleşme genel olarak pozitif etki oluştururken operasyonel maliyetler, takipteki krediler, düşük faiz vermek karlılığı negatif etkilemektedir. İki banka türü arasında başta bu değişkenler özelinde anlamlı farklar bulunmaktadır. Özellikle faizin yasak olması nedeniyle katılım bankalara hem bazı ürünler ulaşamamakta hem de bazı ürünleri müşterilerine sunamamaktadır. Hatta bazı komisyon gelirlerini bile uygun görülmediği için alamamaktadır. Ancak faiz hassasiyeti bulunan müşteriler potansiyel müşteri olup başka tarafa gidemedikleri için bankaya önemli bir avantaj sağlayabilmektedir. İlgili çalışma Türkiye özelinde yapılmış olup bankaların çeyreklik verileri kullanılarak 2007-2017 yılları arasını kapsayacak şekilde yapılmıştır. Karlılık tespiti için ekonometrik model kullanılmış olup ilgili çalışma ve testler stata ile yapılmıştır
Constructing a financial stress index for Turkey: A multivariate GARCH approach
Various economic crises have been experienced due to the dynamics of the country as well as the global crises that have lived in the world from past to present. Many of the important studies in economics aimed to estimate these fluctuations in the markets and to examine their relations with each other. In this context, since the early 2000s, financial stress indexes have been established by economists or central banks for various countries. The financial stress indexes created are specific to countries or regions and have some differences. These differences are the methods as well as the data types that are used. In this study, the financial stress indexes created for Turkey. Also, different countries are examined in the literature review. There is the necessity of constructing a new financial stress index because of the economic fluctuations in Turkey in recent years. The financial stress index of Turkey demonstrates the economic activity after important financial events that are called as financial crisis. The financial stress index which is a continuous variable as a time serie and its extreme values are called financial crises in the literature. The financial stress index can be expected to increase in the case of expected financial loss, risk potential or uncertainty financial conditions. In this study, the financial stress index of Turkey is generated with using the banking sector, equity market, money market and exchange market variables. The financial stress index of Turkey is constructed on daily basis for the period from 2 January 2007 to 29 November 2017. The data diversity has been expanded in this study when compared to previous studies in Turkey that is why this study has importance for Turkey. Firstly, the variables of each sector were standardized. Then, the financial stress index for each sector was composed with the equal weighted average method. FSI of Turkey was created again using the four-sector financial stress index data with the same method. The financial stress index of Turkey is analyzed with banking sector, equity market, money market and exchange market indexes. Modelling volatility is very important for investors and researchers The Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity models (ARCH) are used especially to model volatility clustering. In the market, there are periods of small volatility followed by the periods of high volatility. This phenomenon is called volatility clustering. For volatility clustering, historical volatility models can be used mostly. Most popular model is generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model which is generalization of ARCH model. In this thesis, multivariate GARCH model was used because of the presence of more than one variable when analyzing correlations. A special type of multivariate GARCH model which is dynamic conditional correlation GARCH (DCC GARCH) model was used in this study. DCC GARCH model can be used to estimate conditional correlations between two series. DCC GARCH model was used to examine the correlation between FSI of Turkey and the markets in Turkey. Conditional correlations give information about volatility spillover. This phenomenon is very important for financial markets. What is observed in financial market is that correlation increase or decrease after financial crisis between two financial markets. If there is a volatility shock in one market, then it affects the other market. If the correlations between two markets are high, it means that there is less risk diversification opportunity between these markets. In other words, hedging between these markets seems not possible. On the contrary, if the correlations between two-time series of financial markets are very low, in that case, it is possible to hedge this portfolio because of the potential of diversification risk. After generating the FSI of Turkey for the last ten years, the peaks of it are interpreted in terms of important financial events in this study. In 2008, the giant Lehman Brothers declared its bankruptcy and the whole world paid the price of Lehman's collapse. Billions of dollars had evaporated in stock markets, millions of people were unemployed, many employers had gone bankrupt etc. The Turkish economy was also negatively affected by this fact. As a result of that, FSI of Turkey which is created in this thesis seems to have a peak in 2009. In 2013, the Federal Reserve System (FED) made a declaration about its tapering decision which is to reduce asset purchases in the beginning of 2014. It means that United States withdraw money from the market and the interest rates will rise for United States. This decision also implied the depreciation of the Turkish Lira because investors wanted to invest in the US. As a consequence of this event, there is another peak in FSI of Turkey for this time interval. At the end of 2016, after the US presidential election, the perception of uncertainty in international finance world had increased significantly. After election, FED's monetary policy was expected to change with new administration in US. Moreover, the slowdown in global economies and the geopolitical risks had the negative effect on economic activity over foreign trade. In that time, the United Kingdom's decision on leaving the European Union provided also negative effect on global market. On the other hand, the main reason of activity in foreign exchange market is that the uncertainties for future interest rate policies of developed countries. The coup attempt had especially big impact on Turkish economy. Thus, there is another peak in FSI of Turkey at the beginning of 2017. Moreover, the relationships between the markets which are used to generate the FSI of Turkey are analyzed according to the correlation coefficients gained from DCC GARCH model. At the last part, the financial stress index of Turkey is interpreted whether it can be used as a sign of financial crisis for Turkey or not. Its extreme values show the financial crisis that the events that suddenly and unexpectedly occur in the economy will produce macroeconomic consequences for the country's economy. Furthermore, firms have serious consequences in that time from the micro perspective.
The impact of energy independence and security act of 2007 on renewable energy consumption in The United States
In recent years, global warming, climate change, increase in CO2 levels in the atmosphere, fluctuations in oil prices and countries' reliance on imported energy resources have increased the number of studies in the renewable energy field. Recognition of renewable energy sources as the main energy source coincided with the 1970s, and the number of studies carried out in this area is steadily increasing. In the literature, there are several studies in relation to the association between renewable energy consumption and economic growth. Differently, from other studies, the contribution of existing empirical study to the economic literature addresses the effectiveness of implemented sustainable energy policies. This study examines the impact of the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA 2007) on renewable energy consumption in the US. The results obtained from this study are important for the countries that support renewable energy investments such as Turkey, India, China and aims to provide guidance for future studies. In this study, independent variables GDP, oil price and CO2 emissions which affect renewable energy consumption were introduced. Then our control variable which is EISA(2007) was explained. A set of time series consisting of total renewable energy consumption and CO2 emissions were chosen from the Energy Information Agency (EIA), and real GDP and oil prices were obtained from the Federal Reserve Economy Database (FRED). This dataset covers the first quarter of 1990 and the last quarter of 2017. First, to test the stability of these time series, ADF, PP, DF-GLS stationarity tests were employed and according to the obtained results it was understood that the series were stationary at their first differences. After the Johansen Cointegration test was performed, the model was estimated with Dynamic OLS and Fully Modified OLS estimators. According to the results obtained from both estimators, EISA (2007) positively and statistically significantly affects renewable energy consumption from 2008 to 2017 in the US.
Estimation of food demand in Turkey using quadratic almost ideal demand system
Demand estimation is crucial for people, companies, and governments. It is important not only for predicting the future quantities, but is also important to understand the consumer behaviour. Because, understanding the consumer behaviour helps to decision-making process. This thesis estimates the food demand in Turkey for the years between 2008 and 2016. Because, drastic increases in inflation rates in recent years is mostly attributed to the food prices. Besides, demand for food is relatively more inelastic compared to the other commodity groups. So, food demand in Turkey is an important subject for the welfare of the Turkish people. One can make inferences on the consumers' well-being by observing the revealed preferences which is a subject of the Microeconomic Theory. By understanding the Neoclassical Demand Theory, one can better understand the consumers' behaviours (and preferences). Therefore, I examine the Neoclassical Demand Theory before estimating the food demand in Turkey. I use Almost Ideal Demand System to estimate food demand, because it satisfies many desirable assumptions of the Neoclassical Demand Theory. However, I make estimations using Quadratic AIDS instead of AIDS. Because QUAIDS assumes that consumers have quadratic Engel Curve which is more appropriate for the demand systems. On the other hand, AIDS and QUAIDS are nonlinear models; but in order to make estimations faster, it is converted into a linear model called Linear Approximated AIDS. However, LA/AIDS has some econometric problems like endogeneity; therefore I estimate QUAIDS nonlinearly. One of the distinctive feature of this study is that I estimate food demand after aggregation of household surveys. I convert surveys into time series data. By doing so, I notice unusual behaviour of the consumers during the sacrifice feasts; I estimate the model faster; and I do not need to apply censored demand techniques to reduce heterogeneity. However, the number of observations is reduced to 108 from (almost) 100.000 by aggregation. Thus, I make robustness checks at some points. The results carry conviction and give important intuitions about the current debates like ``bread pricing'' and ``meat imports''. ``Meat and Fish'' and ``Sugar, jam, honey, chocolate, and confectionary'' commodity groups have high income elasticity. Thus, welfare effects can differ for the low and high income people. The difference between compensated and uncompensated price elasticity for ``Bread and Cereals'', ``Fruit and Vegetables'', and ``Meat and Fish'' commodity groups are very high. This means, consumers cannot substitute these commodity groups. Thus, price increases for these commodity groups yield high welfare loss. In order to make better welfare analysis, one should estimate the food supply and supply elasticities of the commodity groups. And further methodological researches can be conducted on the machine learning algorithms. ML algorithms offer better performance of prediction accuracy and precision. However, there is a huge literature gap on interpretability of the ML algorithms. ML can be used for demand systems as well.
Türkiyede bölgesel tüketim ve gelir dinamikleri: Panel veri analizi
Examining regional consumption and income dynamics has become increasingly important in recent years. Regional income and consumption disparities are used to create regional economic policies because the reduction of these disparities is a crucial step for economic development. The rapid progress of the scientific and technological developments in communication technologies and the promotion of the air, land and marine transportation in recent years have increased the interactions among households at the regional level. Thus, the differences in consumption and income among households have been changing. This thesis thus aims to test whether there are any differences in consumption and income among the 26 NUTS-2 regions in Turkey, then to identify the determinants of the differences and finally to examine the direction in which these differences evolve over time. For this purpose, demand elasticities are estimated at the regional level for each group of goods and service, then regional convergence analyzes is tested. The price and income elasticities for 12 groups of goods and service for 26 NUTS-2 level regions covering the period 2005-2013 are estimated using the Almost Ideal Demand Model(Deaton & Muellbauer, 1980) in the linear form. Elasticities are obtained for the expenditures on food, alcohol, clothing, shelter, furniture, health, transportation, communication, recreation, education, restaurant and other goods and service using geographically weighted panel regression (Bruna & Yu, 2013; Yu, 2010) technique. The technique considers both time dependence (effect) and spatial dependence and is superior to other traditional regressions because it takes into account spatial autocorrelation, spatial heterogeneity, and individual heterogeneity. Our findings show that the income elasticity of demand is inelastic for shelter expenditure, whereas transportation expenditure, furniture expenditure and health expenditure are quite elastic. The elasticities of food expenditure, clothing expenditure and communication expenditure differ between the east and the west of the country. Alcohol expenditure, restaurant expenditure, and recreation expenditure also vary from region to region. It should be noted, however, that elasticities of food expenditure, clothing expenditure and communication expenditure do not show a systematic pattern. Counterintuitively, the elasticity of education expenditure does not also show a systematic pattern among the regions. The price elasticity of demand is similar for all regions in terms of shelter expenditure, furniture expenditure and health expenditure. The elasticities of all other remaining expenditures show significant differences among all regions. The price elasticities of food and clothing expenditure vary systematically between the eastern and western regions as income elasticities. However, the price elasticity of alcohol expenditure, recreation expenditure and restaurant expenditure do not differ systematically across all regions. Contrary to expectations, the price elasticities of education expenditure, health expenditure, transportation expenditure and communication expenditure differ significantly among all regions. The convergence in the expenditures on food, alcohol, clothing, shelter, furniture, health, transportation, communication, recreation, education, restaurant and other goods and service as well as income is tested using four different approaches. Firstly, the convergence of the 12 goods and service groups and income for 26 NUTS-2 level regions is tested by employing spatial dynamic panel regression model approach(Lee & Yu, 2010) and the dynamic panel quantile regression model(Galvao, 2011) based on the Neoclassical growth model(R. J. Barro & Sala-i-Martin, 2004). Then the presence of convergence clubs is examined by using the convergence clubs approach(Hobijn & Franses, 2000) applying the unit root test and clustering algorithms. Finally, convergence is tested by the distribution approach (Quah, 1996) based on the kernel density functions. Our findings from these four convergence analyzes present that the differences in terms of food expenditure, clothing expenditure and health expenditure, which have low income and price elasticities and high share in budget, are gradually decreasing among all of the regions. However, neither convergence nor divergence are not found in furniture expenditure, shelter expenditure, recreation expenditure, restaurant expenditure and education expenditure, which have partly high income and price elasticities.
Şanlıurfa'da Cumhuriyetin ilk yıllarından GAP başlangıcına üretim ve paylaşım sorunu
Türkiye Cumhuriyeti'nin kuruluşundan Güneydoğu Anadolu Projesi (GAP) Eylem Planı'nın başlangıcına kadar olan süreçte ülke ekonomisindeki yapısal dönüşümler ve bu dönüşümlerin Urfa ekonomisine etkileri incelenmiştir. Çalışmanın temel amacı, ulusal düzeyde uygulanan iktisat politikalarının yerel düzeydeki üretim, tüketim ve paylaşım mekanizmalarını nasıl yansıdığını ortaya koymaktır. Araştırma kapsamında makroekonomik göstergeler, nüfus sayımları, tarım ve sanayi envanterleri ile sektörel veriler kullanılarak tarihsel ve karşılaştırmalı bir analiz yöntemi izlenmiştir. Çalışmada, Türkiye'nin tarımdan sanayiye geçiş sürecindeki yapısal dönüşümü ile Urfa'nın bu sürece uyum düzeyi tarım, sanayi ve hizmetler sektörü ekseninde irdelenmiştir. Elde edilen bulgulara göre, Urfa ekonomisinin incelenen dönem boyunca büyük ölçüde tarıma dayalı geleneksel yapısını koruduğu, sanayileşme ve hizmetler sektöründeki gelişmelerin ise Türkiye ortalamasının gerisinde kaldığı tespit edilmiştir. Tarım sektöründe makineleşme ve modernleşme girişimlerinin üretim miktarını artırmasına rağmen, toprak mülkiyetindeki eşitsizlikler, teknik altyapı yetersizliği ve sulama sorunları nedeniyle beklenen refah artışının tabana yayılamadığı görülmüştür. Sanayi sektöründe ise özel sektör yatırımlarının sermaye ve teknik altyapı yetersizliği nedeniyle sınırlı kaldığı, kamu yatırımlarının ise bölgesel eşitsizlikleri gidermede tam anlamıyla yeterli olamadığı belirlenmiştir. Sonuç olarak, Urfa'nın ekonomik gelişim sürecinin ulusal kalkınma hamlelerini geriden takip ettiği, üretim ilişkilerinin feodal yapıdan tam anlamıyla kopamadığı ve bölgenin yapısal sorunlarının çözümünde kamu merkezli büyük ölçekli bölgesel kalkınma projelerinin zorunluluğu ortaya konulmuştur.
Sürdürülebilir kalkınma sağlık ekonomisi ilişkisinin Van ilinde analizi
Sürdürülebilir kalkınma, gelecek nesillerin kendi ihtiyaçlarını karşılayabilme yeteneğini ortadan kaldırmaksızın şimdiki neslin ihtiyaçlarının karşılanmasıdır. Sürdürülebilir kalkınmanın temel unsurları arasında ekonomik unsurlar, sosyo-kültürel unsurlar ve çevresel unsurlar yer almaktadır. Açlığın azaltılması, nitelikli eğitim, toplumsal cinsiyet eşitliği, temiz su ve sıhhi koşullar, insana yakışır iş ve ekonomik büyüme, sanayi- yenilikçilik ve altyapı, eşitsizliklerin azaltılması, sorumlu tüketim ve üretim, sudaki yaşam, karasal yaşam, barış ve adalet, yoksulluğun azaltılması, erişilebilir temiz enerji, sürdürülebilir şehir ve yaşam alanları ile sağlıklı bireyler sürdürülebilir kalkınmanın temel hedeflerinden bazılarıdır. Bu hedeflere ulaşmada sağlık önemli göstergelerden biri olarak kabul edilmektedir. Sağlık insanoğlunun temel ihtiyaçlarından biridir. Dünya Sağlık Örgütü tarafından yapılan tanıma göre sağlık; bireylerin fiziki, ruhsal ve sosyal yönden tam iyilik halleri olarak ifade edilmektedir. Doğaldır ki bu tam iyilik hali yaşanılan ekonomik kalkınma ve onun etkilediği çevre ile yakından ilişkilidir. Sürdürülebilir kalkınmanın hedeflerini değerlendirmede kullanılacak sağlık göstergeleri arasında beslenme durumu, ölüm oranı, hijyen koşulları, içme suyu, sağlık hizmetler gibi değişkenler yer almaktadır. Bütün bu değişkenlerin değerlendirilmesi , sağlık adına yapılan çalışmalarında daha verimli olması için ekonomi biliminin alt dalı olarak sağlık ekonomisinin payı artmıştır. Bu tez çalışması kapsamında ''Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma Sağlık Ekonomisi İlişkisinin Van İlinde ki Analizi'' ortaya konulmuştur. Çalışmada Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma tanım ve kapsamı ile Sağlık Ekonomisi tanım ve kapsamı ve gelişimi ele alınmıştır. Van ilinde yaşayan vatandaşlara uygulanan anket çalışması ile Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma Sağlık Ekonomisi İlişkisinin Van İlinde ki Analizi yapılmıştır. Analiz sonucunda Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma ve Sağlık Ekonomisi arasında olumlu bir ilişki olduğu ortaya konulmuştur. Anahtar Kelimeler : Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma, Sağlık Ekonomisi, Van
Analyzing the obstacles of electronic commerce: A study of sample companies operating in Sulaymaniyah city
The spread of e-commerce in the global borders particularly in the western countries reached a significant level. Thus, e-commerce becomes a capable engine for stimulating the economic activities among the various parties including businesses, institutions, and different economic sectors, that provides an opening to the creation of large markets in which products and services of organizations are exposed. Therefore, this is a prospect for those seeking to find the most profitable ways to promote and search for new clients and markets, over electronic means based on new payment and payment systems. Consequently, the main purpose of this study was to analyze the obstacles to e-commerce. The results revealed that there were financial obstacles to electronic commerce at a significant level in Sulaymaniyah city. Also, there is a human obstacle in front of operating e-commerce applications. Mainly there was a lack of awareness among employees on e-commerce applications. The study also confirmed that there was a lack of knowledge among managers of the importance of electronic commerce. Further, the consumer culture in the region about electronic commerce is limited. There are the technological obstacles to e-commerce operations, particularly the weakness of electronic infrastructure, and weakness of the culture and electronic awareness in the region. Besides, many companies in the Sulaimaniyah city and the region faced the problem of slow internet. The results found the legal obstacles, so, there was a lack or not enough laws to clarify the nature and scope of electronic commerce. The results also confirmed that there were no critical political or governmental obstacles to electronic commerce. Keywords: Economy, E-commerce, and Obstacles of Electronic Commerce
Mülteci hareketleri ve iş gücü piyasası ilişkisi: Van ili örneği
Göç, insan ve toplum bilincinde derin izler bırakan ve insanlık tarihi kadar eski olan bir olaydır. Birden fazla alana ve sosyal yaşam katmanlarına yayılmış ve küresel bir sorun haline gelen ulus ötesi göç hareketliliği, ülkeleri işbirlikleri geliştirmeye ve kapsamları ve boyutları ile örgütlenme temelinde buluşturmaya zorlamaktadır. Türkiye, küresel ve bölgesel krizlerde ve uluslararası göç hareketliliğinde kritik bir coğrafyadır. Türkiye'ye gelen mülteciler gittikleri yerlerdeki nüfusu ve coğrafi dağılımı; eğitim, sağlık, güvenlik, barınma ve ekonomi gibi çeşitli alanları etkileyerek hem toplumsal hem de ekonomik problemlere sebep olmaktadır. Dolayısıyla bu çalışma kapsamında mültecilerin Van'daki yerel işverenlere ve işgücü piyasasına bakışları araştırılmıştır. Farklı uyruklardan oluşan toplam 555 kişiye ilk kez bu çalışmada geliştirilen anketler uygulanmıştır. Elde edilen veriler ışığında, faktör analizi için Memnuniyet, Uyum, Sağlık ve Gelir olmak üzere dört faktör oluşturulmuş ve demografik değişkenler ile aralarındaki korelasyon incelenmiştir. Sonuçlara göre; yabancı işgücünün uyruğu, yaşı, medeni durumu, eğitimi ve cinsiyeti gibi demografik değişkenlerin ölçeğin alt faktörlerine göre istatistiki olarak farklılık gösterdiği bulgusuna ulaşılmıştır.
Türkiye'de tasarruf açığının yapay sinir ağları modeli ile analizi
Ülkemizde tasarruf, yatırım ve tasarruf açığının tarihsel süreç içerisindeki değişiminin incelenmesi ve yapay sinir ağları yöntemi ile tasarruf açığını tahmin edecek en iyi mimariyi belirlemek bu tezin ana amacı olarak benimsenmiştir. Bu bağlamda tasarruf açığı yapısal olarak analiz edildi, diğer ekonomik değişkenler ile ilişkisi irdelendi ve tasarruf açığının yapay sinir ağları yöntemi ile tahmin edilebilirliğine yönelik analiz yapıldı. Her ne kadar Yapay sinir ağları birçok problemin çözümü olmamaktadır, ne kadar çok öğrenseler de gene hata yapmaktadırlar. Yapay sinir ağları kendi kararları doğrultusunda davranışlar sergilemektedirler. Bu çalışmada Türkiye'nin tasarruf açığı verilerini tahmin edebilmek için, geçmiş yıllardaki enflasyon oranı, nominal faiz oranı, brüt dış borç stoku, kişi başına düşen GSYH ve kamu harcaması verileriYapay Sinir Ağlarının eğitim verileri olarak kullanılmıştır. MatlabNeural Network toolbox kullanılarak yapay sinir ağları oluşturulmuştur. Matlab ortamında; Network (ysa) tipi: Feedforwardbeckpropogation, Training function (eğitim fonksiyonu): Trainlm (Levenberg-Marquardt), Adaptivelearningfunction (adaptif öğrenme fonksiyonu): Learngdm, Performancefunction (performans fonksiyonu): mse (Mean Squared Error) yapay sinir ağları eğitimi gerçekleştirilmiştir. Eğitilen Yapay sinir ağı ile Türkiye'nin geçmiş yıllar için tasarruf açığı verilerinin tahmini gerçekleştirilmiştir. Eğitimde kullanılmayan verilerin yüksek doğruluklar ile belirlenmesi yapay sinir ağının eğitiminin başarı ile sonuçlandığını göstermektedir.
Banka karlılığını belirleyen içsel ve dışsal faktörler: Türkiye örneği
Bu çalışmanın amacı; bankaların kârlılığını belirleyen içsel ve dışsal faktörlerin tespit edilmesidir. Bu amaçla 2008–2018 yılları arasında Borsa İstanbul'da faaliyet gösteren bankaların verilerinden yararlanılmıştır. Bağımlı değişken olarak varlık karlılığı (ROA- Return On Assets) ve öz sermaye kârlılığı kullanılmıştır. Çalışmada kullanılan bağımsız değişkenler ise bankaya özgü içsel, dışsal faktörlerdir. Ampirik analizlerde regresyon ve korelasyon yöntemlerinden yararlanılmıştır. Yapılan analizler sonucunda banka büyüklüğü, varlıklar içerisinde özsermaye ve kredi oranı ile ROA ve ROE arasında pozitif bir ilişki tespit edilmiştir. Bunun yanı sıra kredi/mevduat oranı ve likit aktifler/toplam aktifler oranı ile ROA ve ROE arasında istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir ilişki bulunamamıştır. Ayrıca enflasyon oranı ve ekonomik büyüme ile varlık ve özsermaye karlılığı arasında pozitif ve anlamlı bir ilişki bulunmuştur.
Türk tarım sektörünün sürdürülebilir gıda güvencesi açısından değerlendirilmesi: Veri zarflama analizi
Tarım sektörü, insanoğlunun beslenme gibi temel gereksinimini karşılama özelliğinden dolayı önem arz etmektedir. Artan dünya nüfusu insanoğlunun beslenme problemini gündeme getirmiş, bu durum tarım sektöründe yaşanan modern girdi kullanımı, teknolojik gelişme ve makineleşme ile aşılmaya çalışılmıştır. Bu süreç tarımsal üretimde yüksek verimlilik artışları sağlamakla birlikte, beraberinde çevresel sorunlar ve sağlıklı gıdaya erişim sorunlarını da getirmiştir. Yaşanan gelişmelerin gıdaya yönelik olumsuz etkilerinin azaltılması için gıda güvencesi konusu gündeme gelmiştir. Gıda güvencesi, insanların yaşamları için gerekli olan besin ve gıda ihtiyaçlarını karşılayabilmeleri amacıyla yeterli, sağlıklı, güvenilir ve besleyici gıdaya sürekli erişebilmeleri olarak tanımlanmaktadır. Bu çalışmada Türk Tarım sektörünü gıda güvencesi açısından değerlendirmek amacıyla öncelikle tarımsal ürünlerdeki kendi kendine yeterlilik incelenmiştir. Daha sonra ülke nüfusunun yıllık kalori gereksinimleri hesaplanmış ve tarımsal üretimin kalori gereksinimini karşılama oranları bulunmuştur. Nihai olarak da Veri Zarflama Analizi yöntemi kullanılarak OECD ülkeleri içinde Türkiye'nin sürdürülebilir gıda güvencesi açısından göreli etkinliği incelenmiştir. Çalışmanın bulgularına bakıldığında, Türkiye'nin gıdanın bulunabilirliği açısından iyi konumda bulunmasına rağmen, erişilebilirlik açısından sorunlar yaşadığını göstermektedir.
İktisadi kalkınmada coğrafyanın rolü
Bu çalışmanın amacı iktisadi kalkınmada coğrafyanın rolünün ne olduğunu belirlemeye çalışmaktır. Coğrafi özelliklerinden dolayı nüfus yoğunluğunun yüksek olduğu ülkelerin, akarsu ve nehir kaynaklarına sahip ülkelerin, göreli daha soğuk iklim koşullarına sahip ülkelerin iktisadi olarak daha kalkınmış olup olmadığını sorgulamak bu çalışmanın temel amacıdır. Çalışmada temel önkoşullar nüfus yoğunluğu, iklim, nehir ve akarsu gibi taşıma avantajları sağlayan coğrafi özelliklerin, iktisadi kalkınmada önemli bir etken olduğu varsayımına dayanmaktadır. Nüfus yoğunluğunun yüksek olması, birlikte yaşama pratiklerini artırırken aynı zamanda yenilikçi düşüncelerin gelişmesine de katkı sağlamaktadır. Bu durum iktisadi kalkınmada pozitif etki meydana getirmektedir. Benzer şekilde akarsu ve nehir kaynaklarının fazla olması, ülke içi ve ülke dışı ucuz taşıma maliyetleri açısından avantaj sağlamaktadır. Bu durum da ulaşım avantajları sağlayarak iktisadi kalkınmaya pozitif etki etmektedir. Ayrıca iklimin insan doğası ve davranışları üzerinde etkili olduğuna ilişkin tezlere dayanarak da sıcaklığın iktisadi kalkınma üzerinde etkisi olduğu düşünülmektedir. Çalışmada, coğrafya ve kalkınma arasındaki bu ilişkileri incelemek üzere panel veri analizi yapılmıştır.
Para politikasının Irak'ta enflasyona 2004-2018 dönemindeki etkisi - analitik çalışma
Para politikası, dünyadaki birçok ülke tarafından kullanılan politika araçlarından biri olarak kabul edilmektedir. Bu ülkelerden biri de Irak'tır. Faiz, döviz ve para arzı değiĢkenleri üzerinde etkili ve denetleyici politikalar çizmek, enflasyon üzerinde doğrudan etkili olmalıdır. Irak'ta da ekonomi, gerçek ve parasal yönleriyle 2004 yılından sonra çok önemli değiĢikliklerin yaĢandığı yeni bir döneme tanıklık etmiĢtir. Bu değiĢikliklerin en önemlisi, Irak Merkez Bankası'nın para politikası çizme ve bunun uygulanması için uygun araçları belirleme konusundaki yüksek yargı kurulu tarafından çıkarılan 2004 senesi 56 yasa gereğince bağımsızlık kazanmasıdır. Buna ek olarak, Irak'taki para politikası hedefleri yönelimlerine uygun yeni araçların güncellenmesidir. Belki de en önemlisi fiyat istikrarı ve dinarın değerinin yükselmesi ve 2004 yılında %27.0'den 2018 yılında %0.4'e inen enflasyon oranlarının kontrol altına alınmasıdır. Bu, döviz kurunda istikrara ve genel düzeyde fiyat istikrarına yol açmıĢtır. Para politikasının, 2004- 2018 dönemi sırasında Irak'taki enflasyonun Ģiddeti üzerindeki etkisini analiz etmek ve ölçmek için "ARDL" modeli kullanılan ölçme araĢtırmasının en önemli sonuçları Ģöyledir: Dövize, 0.05'lik önem seviyesinde direkt anlamlı etkisi ve para arzının enflasyona 0.01'lik önem seviyesinde ters anlamlı etkisi. Ayrıca, uzun vadeli yanıt sonuçları, Irak'taki enflasyon ve faiz oranı değiĢkeni arasında somut bir ters etki olduğunu da göstermektedir. Böylece 2008-2014 döneminde Irak ekonomisinde enflasyon oranlarında düĢüĢ meydana gelmesi en önemli sonuçlardandır. Bu merkez bankası'nın para arzına müdahalesinin ve para kütlesinin geniĢlemesini belirlemesinin bir sonucu olarak gerçekleĢmiĢti. AraĢtırmacı, bir dizi tavsiye sıralamıĢtır. Bu tavsiyelerin en önemlileri Ģunlardır: - Yurtiçi faiz oranlarının kademeli olarak serbestleĢtirilmesi, kabul edilebilir enflasyon oranları ile tutarlı bir Ģekilde Merkez Bankası ve ticari bankalar arasında faiz oranlarının serbestleĢtirilmesinden baĢlanmasının öneminin vurgulanması. - Enflasyonla mücadeleye ve enflasyonu hedeflemek için Merkez Bankası tarafından benimsenen döviz kuru üzerinden hedeflenmesine devam etmek. Anahtar Kelimeler: yönelimleri, Merkez Bankası'nın bağımsızlığı, para politikasının 2004 - 2018 döneminde Irak'taki analizi ve ölçümü. Anahtar Kelimeler: Para politikası, enflasyon, Irak'ta para politikasının enflasyon üzerindeki etkisi
Ekonomik ve sosyal kurum olarak vakıflar: 16. 19. yüzyıllarda Osmanlı'da para vakıflarının ekonomik ve sosyal etkileri
Vakıflar yardımlaşma ve dayanışmanın duygusu içinde sosyal bütünleşme ve dengenin sağlanmasına katkı sağlayarak günümüzde devlet eliyle gerçekleştirilen kamu hizmetlerini yerine getirmiş ve bunu asırlar boyunca başarıyla geçekleştiren kurumlardır. Sosyal dengenin sağlanması için zenginden alıp ihtiyacı olana vererek toplumsal barışı sağlayarak ekonomik ve sisyasi istikrarın sağlamsında merkezi yönetimin önemli yardımcı kuruluşlarıdır. Özelikle devletin ulaşamadığı ya da yetmediği ve günümüzde devlet eliyle yapılan dini, kültürel, bayındırlık ve belediye hizmetleri gibi birçok kamu hizmetinin yerine getirilmesinde vakıfların rolü çok fazladır. Gönüllülük esasına dayanarak servetin büyük bir payını özel mülkiyetten çıkarılarak toplumsal mülkiyet grubuna aktarılmıştır. Bu aktarım Osmanlıyı diğer medeniyetlere karşı ileri taşıyarak Osmanlı Devleti vakıf medeniyeti olarak nitelendirmiştir. Vakıfların yaygınlaşarak kurumsallaşması çeşitlenmesiyle para vakıflarını ortaya çıkarmıştır. Para vakıfları sermayesi tamamen nakit paradan oluşan vakıflardır. Ekonomik ve sosyal hizmetlerin yerine getirilmesinde katkı sunmuş, diğer yandan bu hizmetlerin yürütülmesinde finans desteği vermiştir. Para vakıfları ortaya çıkmadan önce tüketiciler ve üreticiler finansman ihtiyacını karşılamak için %50-60 oranlarında faizli krediler almak zorunda kalmışlardır. Para vakıfları alternatif finans kuruluşları olarak hizmet vererek %10-15 oranlarında finans desteği sağlayarak yüksek faiz uygulamaları ve tefeciliğin önüne geçilmiştir. Günümüzde finans kuruluşları ve katılım bankalarının işleyişleri benzer olan para vakıfları Osmanlı Devletinde banka görevini yürütmüştür. Çalışmamızda, vakıf sistemi ile para vakıfları iktisadi ve sosyal hayata etkileri hakkında bilgi vermek ve para vakıflarının geçmişten günümüze kadar işleyişi ve günümüze uygulanıp uygulanmayacağını değerlendirerek farklılıklar ortaya koymaktır.
Coğrafi işaretler ve bölgesel kalkınma: Van ili örneği
Gıda sektörünün fabrikasyonlaşması ve sağlığa zararlı gıdaların artış göstermesi insanları yöresel ve doğal ürünler tüketmeye yöneltmiştir. Bu durum bölgeye has, coğrafi kökeni bilinen belli bir kaliteye sahip güvenilir ürünlere olan talebi arttırmıştır. Yöresel ürünler coğrafi İşaret korumasıyla tescil edilerek taklitlerinden ayırt edilmesini sağlayarak hem tüketici güvenini sağlamada hem de üreticiyi korumada büyük rol üstlenmiştir. Bu yönüyle coğrafi işaretler bölgelerin zenginlik kaynağı olarak bölgenin kalkınmasında büyük role sahiptir. Bu çalışmanın amacı coğrafi işaretli ürünlerin bölgesel kalkınmaya katkı düzeyini Van ili özelinde incelemek ve Van ilindeki coğrafi işaretli ürünleri farklı açılardan değerlendirerek, ilgili paydaşlara yönelik politika önerilerinde bulunmaktır. Bu bağlamda bölgesel kalkınma göstergeleri olan ekonomik, sosyal ve çevresel faktörleri katılımcıların demografik özelliklerine göre incelemektir. Bu çalışmada Van ilinde ikamet eden 823 katılımcıdan anket yöntemi ile veri toplanmıştır. Elde edilen veriler SPSS paket 26 programı ile t-testi, tek yönlü ANOVA testi ve Korelasyon testleri ile analiz edilmiştir. Çalışmada yapılan t-testi analizi sonucunda Coğrafi işaretlerin bölgesel kalkınmaya katkı düzeyine ilişkin yapılan analiz sonucuna göre katılımcıların medeni durumuna göre ekonomik ve sosyal boyutları arasında anlamlı bir farklılık göstermekte olup evli katılımcıların hem ekonomik hem de sosyal alt boyut puanları ortalaması bekarlara göre daha yüksek olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Araştırmanın ANOVA testi sonuçlarına göre coğrafi işaretlerin bölgesel kalkınmaya katkı düzeyine ilişkin olarak katılımcıların yaşa göre sosyal ve çevre alt boyut puanları arasında anlamlı farklılık elde edilmiştir. Çalışmanın bulgularına göre Van ili için coğrafi işaretli ürünler bölge turizm potansiyeline ciddi katkı sağlarken sözkonusu coğrafi işaretli ürünler için yapılan tanıtımların istenen düzeyde olmadığı tespit edilmiştir. Sonuç olarak yöresel ürünlerin coğrafi işaret ile tescil edilip yönetişim, denetim, koordinasyon, hukuki altyapı ve gerekli teşvik sağlandığında bölgesel kalkınmaya katkısı olacağı düşünülmektedir.
Sınır ticaretinin Hakkari ili ekonomisi üzerine etkisi
Sınır ticareti, ülkelerin komşu devletlerle aralarında yaptığı uluslararası bir ticaret türüdür. Sınır ticareti yapan ülkeler, sınır bölgelerinde ikamet eden insanların yaşam standartlarını yükseltmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Türkiye de kendi sınır hatlarında bulunan bölgeleri kalkındırmak amacıyla 1970'li yılların sonundan itibaren sınır ticaretini gerçekleştirmektedir. Türkiye'nin sınır ticaretini gerçekleştirdiği bölgelerden biri de Doğu Anadolu Bölgesi'dir. Doğu Anadolu Bölgesi'nde birçok ilde sınır ticareti faaliyeti uygulanmaktadır. Bu illerin arasında Hakkari ili de yer almaktadır. Hakkari ili, Irak ve İran sınırında bulunan dağlık bir bölgeden oluşmaktadır. Geçim kaynağının büyük bir kısmı, tarım ve hayvancılığa dayalıdır. Sanayisinin gelişmemiş olmasının yanı sıra, madencilik de yeterince yapılmamaktadır. Hakkari bir sınır ili olmasından dolayı, sınır ticareti açısından önemli bir bölgedir. Bünyesinde Irak'a iki, İran'a bir olmak üzere üç sınır kapısı bulundurmaktadır. Sınır ticareti bölge halkı için son derece önemlidir. Bu tez çalışmasında sınır ticaretinin Hakkari ilinin ekonomisi üzerine etkisi araştırılmıştır. Bu etkiyi belirleyebilmek amacıyla Hakkari ilinde yaşayan insanlara cinsiyet, yaş, eğitim durumu gibi demografik bilgiler gözetilerek anket çalışması uygulanmıştır. Anket verileri; iki grubu var olan değişkenlere göre karşılaştırmada bağımsız gruplar t testi, ikiden çok grubu bulunan değişkenler için ise tek yönlü varyans analizi (ANOVA) yöntemi uygulanmıştır. ANOVA neticesinde ortaya çıkan anlamlı farkın hangi kategorilerin arasında var olduğu ise LSD çoklu karşılaştırma yöntemi ile kıyaslanmıştır. Sınır ticaretinin il üzerine hayati derecede bir öneme sahip olduğu ve aynı zamanda istihdam oluşturduğu sonucu saptanmıştır.
The impact of employment in selected sectors on economic growth: The case of Iraq
The aim of the research is to analyses the effect of employment on economic growth and to assess the impact of this effect on agriculture, industry and services. In line with the findings from the related literature, this study applied an ARDL bounds test and Toda Yamamoto causality analysis on the Iraqi case. The study found that, employment increases in agriculture, industry and services sectors have a positive impact on economic growth. Long-run coefficient results reveal that increases in employment in these sectors has a positive relationship with economic growth. In particular, increases in employment in the agricultural sector are found to significantly support economic growth. In accordance with the results of the Toda-Yamamoto causality analysis, there is a unidirectional causality relationship between economic growth and agriculture, industry and services sectors. This can be explained by the interaction of various sectors of the economy with each other and this interaction encourages economic growth. Although agriculture, industry and services sectors have different contributions to economic growth, each of them has a positive effect on growth. Keywords: Economic Growth, Employment in Agricultural Sector, Employment in Industrial Sector, Employment in Service Sector, ARDL Boundary Test.
Öncü makroekonomik göstergelerin enerji tüketimin üzerine etkisi: Türkiye örneği
Enerji tüketimi, makroekonomik açıdan büyük bir öneme sahiptir. Yapılan araştırmalar, enerji tüketiminin makroekonomik göstergeleri etkilediğini ve aynı zamanda makroekonomik göstergelerin enerji tüketimini etkilediğini göstermektedir. Bu çalışmada, literatürdeki genel eğiliminin aksine makroekonomik göstergelerin enerji tüketimi üzerindeki etkisini ele almaktadır. Makroekonomik göstergeler olarak gayri safi yurtiçi hâsıla, ithalat, ihracat ve doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar ve belirlenmiştir. Türkiye'nin 1970 ve 2022 yılları arasındaki yıllık verileri kullanılarak, fosil enerji tüketimi ve yenilenebilir enerji tüketimi olmak üzere iki ayrı model oluşturulmuş, geleneksel birim kök sınaması yöntemlerinden ADF testi, yapısal kırılmalı birim kök testlerinden Perron ve Zivot-Andrew testleri uygulanmıştır. Durağanlık test sonuçlarına göre ARDL yöntemi ile eşbütünleşme ilişkisi belirlenmiş ve son olarak sonra Toda-Yamamoto testi ile nedensellik ilişkileri incelenmiştir. Sonuç olarak iki modelin de eşbütünleşme ilişkisine sahip olduğu ve ülkenin GSYİH'nın fosil enerji ve yenilenebilir enerji tüketimi üzerinde negatif etkisi olduğu görülmüştür. Bu durum fosil yakıt tüketimi için ülkede enerji verimliliğinin arttığı ve üretimin enerji tasarrufu sağlayan bir yapıya dönüştüğünü gösterebilirken yenilenebilir enerji tüketimi için üretimin hala fosil yakıtlardan sağlandığı gerçeğini işaret etmektedir. Ayrıca yenilebilir enerji tüketiminin GSYİH, ihracat ve doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar ile çift yönlü; ihracat değişkeni ile enerji tüketiminden ihracata doğru tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Ancak ihracat ile fosil enerji tüketimi arasında çift yönlü ve fosil enerji tüketiminden doğrudan yabancı yatırımlara doğru tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi görülmüştür.