Theses supervised by Doç. Dr. Fatma Taşkın
11 theses · İhsan Doğramacı Bilkent University
Türkiye rüzgar enerji santrallerinin üretken verimliliği: Bir iki-kademeli veri zarflama analizi
This thesis estimates the relative productive efficiency of Turkish wind farms to discover their inefficiency reasons using a two-stage Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). We choose three input variables and two output variables to conduct 4 different DEA models including input- and output- oriented CCR (Charnes, Cooper, Rhodes) and BCC (Banker, Charnes, Cooper) models. Sensitivity analysis is applied to DEA results to ensure the stability and robustness of the four models. In the second stage Tobit regression models are utilized to explore the exogenous factor that affect the efficiency of Turkish wind farm. DEA results indicate that 40% of Turkish wind farms were operating at preferable levels during 2017. Moreover, 42% of the wind farms should increase their operation levels by adding new installations, and 46% should decrease their capacity due to overinvestments. The sensitivity analysis confirms the robustness of DEA models in this thesis and reveals that amount of electricity generation as an output has substantial impact on the DEA results. Finally, Tobit regression results indicate age and site elevation do not have significant effect on the efficiency of Turkish wind farms. Furthermore, using Tobit regression, we discovered that Chinese and Indian made turbines have negative effect on the performance of Turkish wind farms.
Banka krizlerinin sebepleri: Eşitsizliği ve finansal serbestleşmeyi doğrudan sınama
I perform an empirical analysis to investigate the direct effect of income inequality and financial deregulation on the occurrence of systemic banking crises based on a panel of 133 countries over the period 1970–2018. Differently from earlier empirical studies, this study focuses both on income inequality and financial deregulation levels. Findings based on a multivariate logit model to estimate the probability of systemic banking crisis do not provide any reliable evidence for the existence of a direct relationship between the various measures of inequality and the occurrence of banking crises. I also find that there is no direct link between financial liberalization and the occurrence of banking crises. Furthermore, my analysis shows that income inequality and financial deregulation do not act together to directly impact the likelihood of banking crises. However, this study provides evidence that the reduction of banking capital regulations and prudential supervision may increase the likelihood of banking crisis in the short run. Additionally, the results of this study support the previous findings in the literature that the level of private credit is the most robust predictor of the systemic banking crises.
Türkiye otomotiv sektöründe ihracat ve verimlilik üzerine ampirik bir çalışma
This thesis analyzes the determinants of export performance of the Turkish automotive manufacturers by focusing on firm-level productivity changes. We use the dataset obtained from Automotive Manufacturers Association (OSD) for the time period 2001-2019, and we have a panel data of 18 firms that produce motor vehicles. We calculate the productivity changes of the firms by applying Malmquist Productivity Change Index, which is commonly used in the literature. Analyzing two different dependent variables, export amounts and the share of exports in production, we find that increase in firm-level productivity leads to higher amounts of exports. Moreover, the impact of productivity on share of exports is relatively weaker for the Turkish automotive manufacturers.
Büyük ticaret çöküşü sırasında kompozisyon etkisi üzerine bir analiz
This thesis focuses on one of the famous hypotheses on The Great Trade Collapse which is compositional effect hypothesis. It includes three different parts. The first part examines the method of Levchenko, Lewis, Tesar (2010) for testing compositional effect, attempts to reproduce the results and conducts some robustness analysis of their results. The second part suggests some modifications on the existing model and applies the newly modified model to the US data. The findings suggest that compositional effect is an important factor of the US trade collapse during the The Great Recession. In the last part, the new model is applied to Turkey and the findings show that the compositional effect is not a significant factor of the trade reduction in Turkey. This result could be an indicator which shows that trade of the emerging countries are not governed by the same factors that drive developed country trade falls during the recent economic crisis.
Para krizlerinin tahmindeki zorluk: Kriz tanımı ve tahmin eşiği nasıl fark yaratır?
The focus of this thesis is currency crisis, particularly the evaluation of the models that attempt to forecast currency crisis. Here, we aim to investigate the impacts of definition differences and probability threshold choices on Early Warning Systems. In the first part of the thesis, in order to show that significances of the crisis indicators are dependent to crisis definitions of the models, we separately identify the significant variables for the models that are constructed with the depreciation based definition of Reinhart and Rogoff (2009) and Exchange Market Pressure Index based definition of Eichengreen et al. (1996). In the second part, in order to analyze the definition effect on prediction powers of EWS models, by using 20 different versions of Reinhart and Rogoff (2009) and Eichengreen et al.'s (1996) currency definitions from the literature as dependent variables and the significant variables from the first part of our thesis as explanatory variables we construct 20 different EWS models. Furthermore, to analyze the probability threshold choice effect on prediction powers of the Early Warning System models, in this part we identify 11 different threshold levels and forecast our models 11 times for each of those threshold levels. Our results show that crisis definitions and threshold choices significantly affect the prediction powers of the EWS models. To put it more explicitly, EMP index based definition is shown to be a better predictor compared to depreciation based definition. Furthermore, EMP index is found to give better results with higher standard deviation multiplier. Last but not least, it is empirically proven that 50% threshold is the optimal level for EWS analyses as until that level the prediction powers of the models significantly increase but keep constant above it. Keywords: Currency Crisis, Early Warning System, Probability Threshold,Prediction Power
Konut varlığı, menkul kıymet varlığı ve tüketim
The growth of the stock market in 1990s and the enormous increase in house market during the last decades have reawakened the wealth impacts on the consumption. The main goal of this study is to determine the differential impact of two wealth categories on consumption expenditures. Here we also attempt to compare two alternative housing wealth and stock wealth measures used in the previous literature. The sample period used in the analysis is 2000-2014, which also allows us to identify the effect of the great recession on the consumption parameters for 31 OECD countries. We find strong evidence which housing wealth has important effects on consumption than stock wealth. Keywords: Consumption, Housing Wealth, Stock Wealth
NAFTA sonrası dönemde A.B.D. ithalatı ve ithalatın karbon dioksit içeriği: Sektörel analiz
This thesis examines the changes in the carbon dioxide content of international trade following a multilateral free trade agreement. In this study, the focus is centered on the effects of the North American Free Trade Agreement on the U.S. import flows and the carbon dioxide content of U.S. imports with its major trade partners. In the light of the recent decline in the carbon dioxide emissions generated by the U.S. manufacturing industry, we analyze the value and the carbon content of the U.S. imports from its NAFTA and non-NAFTA importing partners for the implementation period of NAFTA. Using a gravity model of international trade, U.S. imports and carbon dioxide content of U.S. imports are examined for the post-NAFTA period, i.e. 1995-2010, within a panel data framework. With the sectoral trade data and input-output analysis, the direct and indirect carbon dioxide content of trade is computed for the disaggregated imports of U.S. from its NAFTA and non-NAFTA trade partners. The carbon dioxide content of imports is calculated by using the sectoral data of direct carbon dioxide emission coefficients, Leontief inverse matrices and real trade data at a sectoral level. The estimation results indicate that, both the value and the carbon dioxide content of the U.S. imports from NAFTA partners are significantly greater compared to the value and the carbon dioxide content of the U.S. imports from other major non-NAFTA U.S. importing partners within the period 1995-2010.
Kyoto Protokolü'nün çevresel etkinlikteki rolü: Sektörel analiz
This thesis studies sectoral level environmental efficiency changes in the Kyoto countries over the period 2000-2011. First, sectoral level environmental efficiency indexes for the Kyoto countries are computed by using a hyperbolic measure of technical efficiency in a non-parametric piece-wise linear technology. Second, the role of the Kyoto Protocol on environmental efficiency is empirically examine. The results showed that, sectoral level environmental efficiency is significantly improved, especially in dirty sectors, during the years following the Kyoto Protocol's entry into force.
Finansal, ekonomik, bankacılık sektörel ve kurumsal gelişim ve üretkenlik
ABSTRACT FINANCIAL, ECONOMIC, BANKING SECTOR AND INSTITUTIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND PRODUCTIVITY Özcan, Gökçe Masters of Arts, Department of Economics Supervisor: Fatma Taşkın November 2004 This thesis explores the links between Malmquist Productivity Index (and its two components, namely efficiency change and technological change) and the banking sector, economic, financial development and institutional variables. Re sults show that there is a positive link between the banking, economic and financial variables and the productivity indexes. Also, data show that cross-country dif ferences in legal and accounting systems play significant role in the improvement of the productivity indexes- Malmquist Index and its two components, efficiency change and technical change. Keywords: Productivity, Malmquist Index ui
Finansal gelişme ve verimlilik panel veri analizi
Finansal gelişme ve büyüme ilişkisi literatürde sıkça incelenen bir konudur. Büyümenin temel kaynaklarından birinin verimlilik artışları olması sebebiyle bu çalışmada finansal gelişmenin verimliliğe olan katkısı araştırılmaktadır. Gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülkelerin verileri 1965 ve 1990 yılları arası panel analiz yapılarak incelenmiştir. Verimlilik artışları, Fare ve öbürleri (1994) tarafından tanımlanan Malmquist verimlilik değişimi indeksi ile ölçülmüştür. Birbirini izleyen iki yıl arasındaki verimliliği ölçen bu indeks etkinlik değişimi indeksi ve teknolojik değişim indeksi olarak iki bileşene ayrılabilir. Genelleştirilmiş Momentler Yöntemi teknikleri kullanılarak statik ve dinamik analizler çerçevesinde bulunan sonuçlar finansal gelişmenin hem Malmquist verimlilik değişimi indeksi üzerinde hem de bileşenlerinde olumlu bir etkisi olduğunu göstermektedir. Anahtar Kelimeler: Finansal gelişme, Verimlilik
Çevresel etkinliğin karşılıklı ticarette rolü: Çekim modellerinin panel analizi
In this study the role of environmental efficiency in the determination of bilateral trade flows is empirically examined by using Gravity Model for a panel data for 1971 to 2003. Although there are a number of empirical studies that analyze the relationship between environment and trade, most of them show insignificant relationship between environmental regulations and trade. Their differences are mostly due to the use of stringency indicators that are computed with different methods. This study, unlike previous studies, computes the environmental efficiency as a hyperbolic measure of technical efficiency in a non-parametric piecewise linear technology, with a production plan that maximizes the desirable outputs while simultaneously minimizing the resource use and pollution emission. The relationship between bilateral exports and environmental conditions measured as environmental efficiency index is investigated. The empirical results indicate that although there is no significant relationship between exports of a country and its own environmental efficiency index, there is a strong and robust positive effect of the partner country's environmental efficiency index.