The effect of Russian military activism in the Eastern Europe on the threat perception of the USA : Testing the balance of threat theory

This study examines how Russia's military activism in the Eastern Europe has affected the threat perception of the U.S. in the post-Cold War period by testing balance of threat theory. The research question is divided into two sub-research questions: how the annexation of Crimea in 2014 by Russia affected the threat perception of the U.S. and how Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has affected the threat perception of the U.S. The first chapter argues the realist paradigm has regained its dominant position due to the occupation of Ukraine. The second chapter states the inadequacy of mainstream international relations theories in explaining this military activism. The third chapter explains the balance of threat theory, which overcomes these shortcomings. The main trends in aggregate power and offensive capability were measured through indexes and databases. Proximity and offensive intentions were examined via qualitative sources. In the fourth chapter a decrease in Russia's aggregate power and offensive capability was observed. While there is a decrease in the aggregate power between 2015-2022, there is no increase in the offensive capability. Increase in perceived offensive intentions was observed due to several developments in both periods. Proximity was taken as constant. The balancing behaviors after the threat level increases are emphasized. The study supports the main argument that changes in threat levels have played the central role in how the U.S. has conducted its foreign policy vis-à-vis Russia.