Afet sonrasında ihtiyaç duyulacak yardım malzemesi için stoklama kararları

Natural disasters are unexpected crisis events causing devastating human and financial losses. These events trigger a critical need for effective preparedness, mitigation, response and recovery operations to reduce the impact of the disasters.Humanitarian relief agencies participate in massive relief efforts to provide life-supporting resources, such as food, water, sanitation, emergency care, shelter and other essential non-food items; to distribute supplies and to coordinate international aid after a disaster. The success of such large scale and time-critical operations require effective pre-disaster planning.In this thesis, we consider stocking decisions for humanitarian relief agencies that provide emergency relief items to people affected by natural disasters. We present a mathematical model to determine the optimum stocking quantity for one type of relief commodity. The proposed model is an extension of the well-studied newsvendor model that incorporates the disaster risk. The probability that a disaster takes place within the lifetime of the stocked commodity and the demand distribution for this commodity under such a disaster are taken into consideration in the model. We extend our model to determine the optimum stocking quantities for two agencies that stock the same commodity at different locations prone to differing disaster risk, and that work in full cooperation, just like the case of the Turkish Red Crescent and the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent agencies. An equilibrium solution to the model that can be calculated numerically is derived. We investigate the characteristics of the solution under various parameter settings and identify cases where cooperation is beneficial to one or both of the agencies. We analyze the case for Istanbul to demonstrate the use of this modeling approach. The probability of a major earthquake occurrence in Istanbul and the potential demand for relief commodities throughout the city are estimated and used as inputs of the model. A numerical analysis gives insights to the potential benefits arising from cooperation of an agency in Istanbul with an outside agency. Our analysis with respect to realistic scenarios and parameter estimations provides useful guidelines for the relief agencies in Istanbul.