Hydrological modelling and streamflow forecasting with HEC-HMS for Aras basin

The way of striving against the facts such as global warming, growing water demand by growing population, drought and flood goes through effective management of water sources. Hydrological models could be deployed, satellite images could be utilised and streamflow forecasting could be executed on this way. Kayabaşı Basin which is located on the headwaters of Aras River in Eastern Anatolia Region of Turkey is selected for this study. HEC-HMS continuous modeling approach using "Soil Moisture Accounting" and "Deficit and Constant" loss methods are executed with hydro-meteorological data of 2008 - 2015 water years. Modeling NSE performance values for calibration are in the range of 0.63 - 0.74; for validation 0.61 - 0.67. In addition to discharge, snow water equivalent and snow covered area data derived from satellite images are used for consistency analysis. Success ratio of the analysis are %91.2 for calibration, %94.8 for validation. Moreover, streamflow is forecasted with WRF numerical weather prediction data for March - June months of 2015. NSE performance values of the hydrological modelling acquired for 1-day and 2-day forecast data are 0.70 and 0.75 respectively. The study performed and the results achieved serve as examples in applied hydrology and have a prediction value for Kayabaşı Basin and to similar snow dominated basins.