The effect of child labor related boycott threat on Ivory Coast cocoa production

Ivory Coast is the leading cocoa producer in the world. In 1999 Ivory Coast faced a boycott threat due to the large number of child labor. In this study, we aim to analyse the effect of child labor related boycott threat on Ivory Coast's cocoa production. In the first stage, the factors affecting child labor in Ivory Coast were analysed for the 1998-2014 period using multivariate regression techniques with macroeconomic variables were used as input. Since the sample size was small, the outcomes of these analysis are found not to be robust. In the second stage, the effect of boycott threat on cocoa production was investigated. For this purpose, linear and multivariate regression techniques were applied for 1981-2015 period. Outcomes show that the boycott threat effects the cocoa production negatively at a 5% significance level. A difference of 7.572.136 tons between the actual and expected production was calculated. This amount sums up to 8.741.472.758 USD when the yearly differences were multiplied with the respective average cocoa prices. Furthermore, the change in Ivory Coast cocoa production after the threat was also investigated. The 1981-2015 period was decomposed into three sub-periods (A: 1981-1998, B: 2000-2008 and C: 2008-2015) and each was analysed via linear regressions and the findings were compared. According to the results, the production rate descended significantly after the threat. After 2008 the production growth took off again and significantly transcended the before-boycott growth. Finally, Ivory Coast's cocoa production growth was compared with the competitors and Africa and World aggregate production sums. It was seen that the decline in Ivory Coast cocoa production was seized by the next competitor Ghana and Ghana cocoa production protrayed a significant increase starting from the boycott year 1999.