Development of EU and Türkiye's integrated border management strategy due to increasing irregular migration after 2011, future scenarios of Türkiye-EU relations

A complicated interaction between migration, border security and changing geopolitical realities has had a significant impact on the EU's relationship with Türkiye. This thesis looks at these important aspects, concentrating on how border control and irregular migration have come to define the EU-Türkiye relationship. As a crucial transit and host nation, especially during the refugee crises in Syria and Afghanistan, Türkiye's role has expanded well beyond that of a candidate nation, establishing it as a key player in regional security and European migrant policy. To provide a comprehensive understanding of the EU-Türkiye relationship, this study constructs a multidisciplinary theoretical framework that combines theories of international relations, migration studies, and critical border studies. The study examines how migration policies are developed, carried out, and contested at the national and supranational levels using a qualitative methodology based on a wide range of secondary literature. The results show that although both the EU and Türkiye have adopted securitized narratives in reaction to migrant pressures, they have also shown that they are capable of working together pragmatically, as the 2016 EU–Türkiye Statement demonstrates. This cooperation is nevertheless fragile, though, and is frequently hampered by conflicting interests, political difficulties and political views. A move toward a more coordinated and technologically sophisticated approach to border control is evident in Türkiye's internal revolution in migratory governance, which is mirrored in institutional reforms, technical investments at the borders, and international alliances. Meanwhile, the EU is depending more and more on Türkiye as a buffer state as it externalizes its border obligations. Future scenarios for EU-Türkiye relations are also presented in this thesis, ranging from more cooperation to strategic separation. In addition to adding to the scholarly conversation, the study's critical analysis of the connections between migration, security, diplomacy, and technology offers useful advice for decision-makers navigating one of the most urgent and politically delicate areas of international cooperation in the modern era. In the end, this paper makes the case that border control and migration are now essential to the EU and Türkiye's larger geopolitical and strategic alignment rather than being incidental problems. The resilience and adaptability of this relationship will be put to the test as regional crises continue and global uncertainties increase, but it might also present a new paradigm of collaboration in a time of complexity and fragmentation by current developments.